The Hole-in-One Odds

I've never had a hole-in-one.

I don't check my Facebook feed that often, but I happened across this post today:

Unfortunately that means I now hate that guy.  I also hate my dad (3 aces in the last decade) and my brother (x2).  At this rate I won't have anyone to golf with that I actually like in a few years.

The odds of making a hole-in-one are surprisingly hard to find.  A lot of that probably comes from the fact that it's an infrequent enough event that it's hard to study.  But Golf Digest has been trying to keep track and published some of the data in 2013.  According to their numbers, a "low handicapper" has about a 5000:1 chance on a par 3 (pros: 2500:1; high handicappers: 12,500:1).  If there are 4 par-3's on a standard track, then a low handicapper should have about a 1 in 1250 chance of writing "1" on the scorecard in any round.

But of course not all par-3's are created equally, and it stands to reason that it's a lot easier to make an ace on a 90 yard pitch than it is trying to fly in a 3-iron 220 yards over a wetlands preserve.  I couldn't find much data out there about different odds for different distances; the only odds I found were for "average golfers" on a 200 yard hole -- 150,000:1.

Using those numbers I estimated the odds for a low handicapper on a 200 yard hole at about 62,500:1.

Now I play most of my golf on my home course, which has 7 par-3's over 27 holes, ranging from 140 yards (from the blue tees) to 242 yards (from the black tees); the majority, are in the 170-200 yard range.  I'll spare you the details, but if we assume I play about 50% of my rounds from the blue tees and 50% from the blacks, then my true odds of getting a hole-in-one in any given round are about 1564:1.

So...if I play 20 rounds a year it will only take 78 years to guarantee an ace.

Sigh.