The SCC June Invitational: Round One

This year I have the distinct pleasure of playing in my first member-guest tournament as a guest of my friend Kevin at his home course, Springfield Country Club. It is an arguably ridiculous five day affair. Today was the seeding round, played as four-ball (aka best ball of 2-man teams) using gross scores.

We were the first group off the 10th tee, with a 7:30am tee time. Here's how the round played out...

10TH HOLE

A short, sharp dogleg left. The smart play is to hit a 180 yard shot off the tee, and then a short iron into the slightly elevated green. I hit 5-iron but pulled it left; fortunately I managed to have a good view of the green with only about 100 yards in. I hit a gap wedge to about 18 feet. Kevin played it about the same, with a pulled iron off the tee, then a wedge to maybe 20 feet. His birdie try just missed; mine was in the center of the cup. A good start. TEAM: -1. MY BALL: -1. 

11TH HOLE

A tough par 4 that plays uphill and therefore a lot longer than the distance on the scorecard. The tees were up, though, which made driver the fool's play. I again pulled my tee ball, a 15 degree hybrid into the tree line. Kevin also followed me to the left, but he had a clean shot at the green, whereas I was going to have to hit a punch through a narrow window if I was going to advance the ball at all. Kevin ended up flying the green; my 6-iron punch got through clean and left me with about a 30 yard pitch to a crowned back pin. I hit a decent shot, but still had about 12 feet for par...and made it. Kevin had a little more trouble from his position and made 6. TEAM: -1. MY BALL: -1. 

12TH HOLE

A reachable par 5 that plays -- interestingly -- across a road. Both Kevin and I hit 275 yard drives down the center, and then we both hit hybrid across the road to the landing area short of the green; Kevin had about 75 yards left, and I had a delicate pitch that would need to carry the bunker on the right of the green. Kevin's shot was aggressive and ended up on the back of the green -- not where you want to be on a green that slopes severely from back to front. I hit a quick-checking pitch that stopped about 2 feet from the hole on the high side.  Kevin's try ran (unsurprisingly) past the hole, but I managed to cozy in my quick tester for a second birdie. TEAM: -2. MY BALL: -2. 

13TH HOLE

The 2nd of two back-to-back par 5's, this one is less likely reachable though actually easier to go for it because there isn't really any trouble in front of the green. We again hit matching 275 yard drives, but terrible shots from there -- I fanned a 1-hybrid way right, into the 14th hole rough, and Kevin hit one fat, leaving 100 or so into the green. My 54 degree wedge found the front of the green, while Kevin's next shot was off the back edge. I was in after 2 putts; Kevin finished with bogey. TEAM: -2. MY BALL: -2. 

14TH HOLE

Playing at just about 180 yards, this should have been an easy 5-iron, but I hit it thin and ended up in the green side bunker on the left. Kevin hit a beautiful 5-iron with a little draw pin-high, with about 8-10 feet left. My bunker shot went right over the stick, and it took 2 to get down for bogey. Kevin's birdie try dove left at the last second, and so we settled for his tap-in par. TEAM: -2. MY BALL -1. 

15TH HOLE

This is a long uphill dogleg right par 5. Kevin popped his drive up a little and was in the right rough, blocked out a bit. My drive was almost to the corner of the dogleg, but leaked a little right at the end and wandered into the first cut of rough; I also didn't really have an angle to go at the green. Kevin's next one carried through the fairway into the left rough, while my 5-iron came up about 50 yards short of the green in the center of the fairway. From there I hit a nice pitch that landed next to the pin and ran 5 feet past; Kevin hit a good looking 7 iron that somehow came up short and in the bunker. He took 3 to get up and down; my putt did almost a full 360 around the cup but somehow did manage to fall in for another birdie. TEAM: -3. MY BALL: -2. 

16TH HOLE

A long par 4. I hit a good drive 265 yards down the center, while Kevin pulled his a bit and nearly got to the woods on the left side, leaving no clean shot to the green. He hit a good punch that actually almost got there. I hit 8-iron that landed in the center of the green and somehow spun 20 feet back to the front fringe. Kevin had a tough lie in the rough and needed a chip and 2 putts to get in; I lagged up to about a foot and made par. TEAM: -3. MY BALL -2. 

17TH HOLE

A difficult par 4 because of the treacherous green the slopes severely from back to front. I hit hybrid past the dogleg corner into the 1st cut of rough on the left; Kevin hit driver to the right side of the fairway. I had about 95 yards to the pin (which was front-right) and the lie was a little heavy so I decided to hit a full gap wedge. It flew to about 5 yards past the pin, and then started to come back toward the hole...and then past the hole...and then off the green...and then 50 feet down the hill of the false front. Kevin saw that happen and decided to hit a dead wrist wedge to take the spin off and managed a perfect shot to about 6 feet that held its position. I got up and down for par. Unfortunately Kevin's trick right to lefter wasn't meant to be. TEAM: -3. MY BALL: -2. 

18TH HOLE

Both the 18th and the 9th holes are long uphill par 3's. This one plays a little shorter, and my 5-iron made the front right of the green. Kevin hit hybrid and didn't make a committed swing, leaving it short and right in the rough. His chip ran about 10 feet past, and so did my poorly-read lag putt. We both missed the comeback. Ugh. TEAM: -2. MY BALL: -1. 

1ST HOLE

The 1st is a straightforward short par 4 -- reachable at about 285 yards, but risky with protective bunkers on both sides of the front of the green. We each hit 4 irons in the fairway, then 100 yard wedges to about 20 feet. 2 pars. TEAM: -2. MY BALL: -1. 

2ND HOLE

A short downhill par 3 over water that was only about 100 yards with the tees up a bit today. I hit a 54 degree wedge that landed about 5 feet past and right of the pin, and for the 3rd time in 5 holes I watched my ball spin 20+ feet back, this time to the very front of the green. Kevin wound up in the bunker that sits in back of the green; his bunker shot left him about 15 feet. I had a tricky uphill right to left putt that was along a ridge line, so I hit it firm and ran 3-4 feet past. Kevin's par try skirted past the hole and ran down that same ridge leaving a long comeback for bogey (it wouldn't go). I made my par. TEAM: -2. MY BALL: -1. 

3RD HOLE

A long par 4 that falls off the right side, requiring a good drive that favors the left. I hit it on the screws 295 yards in the fairway; Kevin was nearly as good, just about 20 yards back. We both hit short of the green with a front pin; I could have putted mine but didn't like the way it was sitting and elected to chip instead -- and nearly holed in, leaving just a tap in for par. Kevin made 5. TEAM: -2. MY BALL: -1. 

4TH HOLE

By now I was clearly feeling it, and on a hole that doesn't require a driver I still took a rip at it and hit a power fade to the center of the fairway, just 40 yards from the center of the green. Kevin played the opposite, hitting hybrid to the 150 yard marker. His shot ended up on the right fringe; my pitch came up a little shorter than I wanted and left about 15 feet. 3 shots for Kevin made bogey; I 2-putt for par. TEAM: -2. MY BALL -1. 

5TH HOLE

A gradual dogleg left where driver is a difficult play. I hit 1-hybrid to the right side of the fairway; Kevin's shot was nicely down the left side. The green is elevated and the pin is difficult to see from below; we both hit wedges that looked awfully good, but both shots were 20+ feet from the hole. 2 pars. TEAM: -2. MY BALL: -1. 

6TH HOLE

Unquestionably the most difficult hole on the course: a 408 yard downhill, narrow, gradual dogleg left that has hazard on both sides, plus a brook that starts about 100 yards from the green and crosses the fairway 40 yards in front. The ideal shot off the tee is about 230-260 yards to a flat area between 2 ski-slopes that can potentially take your ball on a trip off course quickly. I hit 2-hybrid into that sweet spot. Kevin hit an iron off the tee but left it off to the right in the rough (but not the hazard). From there he punched down to the flat area. I had 175 in, all downhill, and hit 7-iron to the left center of the green. Kevin hit his thin and ended up in the left rough -- he eventually made 6. I had a routine 2 putts for par. TEAM: -2. MY BALL: -1. 

7TH HOLE

A short-ish dogleg left par 4 where you must favor the right side off the tee -- the left side slopes off to a hazard area. We both hit left -- Kevin into the hazard, but still with a playable lie; I got a little lucky and stayed in the rough with a clean shot at the green. Kevin punched out, and then hit one to the back of the green; I hit a 9-iron to almost pin high. The hole was precariously placed just over a ridge from me, but I managed to lag to tap-in distance. Kevin also 2 putt for his bogey. TEAM: -2. MY BALL -1. 

8TH HOLE

A very difficult par 5 that requires a lay up off the tee, then a carry over a wetlands hazard to an uphill fairway. If you hit 2 good shots, then you still probably will have 150-200 yards in. I hit 3-iron into the left rough. Kevin hit hybrid to the left fairway. My lie was not good, but I needed to pick up some distance so I hit 2-hybrid, which spun out right and crashed into a grove of trees. (I hit a provisional at that point that would prove to be unneeded.) Kevin chunked his next one a bit, but did manage to safely carry the hazard. I had a limited window when I found mine, but was able to hit a low 4 iron punch to about 30 yards short of the green. By this point, by the way, it was pouring rain, and I lost track of what Kevin did (I think he made bogey). I hit what I thought was a good pitch, but it didn't get nearly as close to the hole as I wanted; my 18 footer skirted past the left edge from there, but I made the 3 footer coming back. TEAM: -1. MY BALL: EVEN. 

9TH HOLE

Uphill par 3. 185 yards today. Pouring rain. And I'm at even freaking par with one hole to play. 

Deep breath. 

4 iron. Just hit it smooth. 

Kevin would later say that the calm confidence that I had the whole round had clearly evaporated as I stood over the ball. 

I will freely admit: I choked it. The only truly bad shot I hit all day. A thin pull hook, well left of the green and down a hill into thick rough. 

Still, all it would take was a flop shot (over a bunker) and a putt to reach the goal. I hit the shot I wanted, and got absolutely no roll out, so 15 feet was what stood between me and even par. I read it as just a hair left to right, but Kevin's putt (from a little deeper on the green than mine) ran hard to the right, and so I gave it a little more credit than I initially planned....and it never broke. Tap-in bogey. (Kevin also made bogey, I think.)

TEAM: even par. MY BALL: +1. 

I could make a million excuses, but the truth is I just hit a terrible shot on the last tee. I can't play much better than I did -- all aspects of my game were clicking. (In retrospect, my long iron play could have been better overall.) The good news is I get to get back out on the same course tomorrow to take another run at it. 

As for our team performance, the course became unplayable due to the weather not long after we finished -- as a result only 15 groups actually finished, and the scores were wiped out (seeding instead will happen based on combined handicap). 

But we were the low score by 3 shots. 

The Swing Analysis (2013 Edition)

"I figured it out!"

I've said that probably two dozen times over the years with reference to my golf swing.  My brother has said it at least that many to me.  Our dad has easily doubled that.

We're always (eventually) wrong.  But that doesn't mean it's not worth working on.

This year's "I figured it out" moment came courtesy of a Sean O'Hair tip in Golf Digest.  You can see the video version below.  What he says isn't revolutionary, but it's the imagery of the hands and clubhead being on train-tracks on the take away that really clicked for me:

My problem historically has been what O'Hair refers to as "sucking in;" that move gets the club too far inside, and I have to make a big adjustment to get on plane at the top of the swing.  Sometimes that works, but sometimes it doesn't; just depends on my timing.

So for the past month or so at the range I've been rehearsing the "train tracks" take away over and over.  Below you'll see some video of my swing with this mental image at the forefront of my mind:

7 iron

Driver

A couple of things I learned from this: (1) this is definitely better, less of a wrap-around take away than I've had previously, and leads to a controlled but powerful weight transfer (especially with the driver); and (2) no matter what I think I'm feeling, the video tells a different story -- I'm still too far inside.

7-iron swing sequence - click to make larger

Ultimately I think I'm doing a better job with the first 25% of the backswing, but then I go right back to rotating the club as I continue backward as opposed to lifting it.  The past 2 range sessions (after these images/videos) I've been focusing on the full backswing, and I feel it becoming ingrained.  The question now is how long I can keep it that way before the old habits creep back in.

The Amendment

I need to make an amendment to the last post on my short game statistic.  My brother (the math teacher) pointed out that making an "arbitrary" assignment of 5 putts saved as "perfect" didn't make a whole lot of sense after all the intricate calculations that came before that.  He recommended using normative data for strokes gained-putting to assess how the adjustment should be made.  Unfortunately, I didn't have normative data for strokes gained-putting.

So... I decided to go straight to the source.  I emailed the guru himself, Mark Broadie, and asked if he could help out.  And he graciously sent along the distribution of PGA strokes gained-putting ranging from +5.5 to -5.5.  Based on that, I was able to asses that (a) it is indeed normally distributed, and (b) the standard deviation is about 1.735.

One problem with that, though -- although I refer to the number as an estimated shots gained-putting, what I'm really trying to calculate is something more like "shots gained from short game shots."  So putting-only distribution doesn't quite fit (obviously there are fewer putts in a round than there are total short game shots including putts; therefore the range should be a bit bigger).  Fortunately, Broadie's research comes through again here, as it turns out an average round's short game play can be split into about 75% putts and 25% short game shots.

Based on all that, here's the final calculation for short game score:

SG = 0.75 + [(SGP*0.75)/1.735] * 0.1

where SG = short game, SGP = estimated shots gained-putting

That yields a short game score of 0.750 (or 75% efficient) when SGP = 0, and goes up or down by 10% for every standard deviation above or below the PGA mean, adjusted for the added short game shots.  Ultimately this works out close to my original "arbitrary" assessment, but it's definitely more precise -- and I like that.

Using this calculation, by the way, obviously changes my short game scores that I had reported in the previous post.  Here are the updated values:

Red Tail Golf Club (SGP +0.672) -- short game score 0.779 (down from 0.784 by original method).

Butter Brook Golf Club (SGP +3.213) -- short game score 0.889 (previously 0.911).

Fox Hopyard Golf Club (SGP -6.145) -- short game score 0.484 (previously 0.443).

The Must Plays: 2013

This is happening right now:

That means two things: (1) no golf for me any time soon, and (2) more blog posts for you!

So let's review last year's "must-play" list and delve into the courses I'm looking to get to this year.

First up, the courses from last year's list that I made it out to.  It was good year as "must-plays" goes, as I made it to 3 of the 5 courses on the 2012 list, plus one from the 2012-2016 list.

MUST PLAYS 2012: COURSES PLAYED

1. Wintonbury Hills Golf Course, Bloomfield, CT.  I played this one very early in the season, just after opening.  I really can't say enough about this course, a varied design that plays fairly open on the front side, and more tightly through the forest on the back.  It's the perfect stop half way between Boston and New York.

2. Meadow Brook Golf Course, Richmond, RI.  I ended up here on a last minute decision -- I had spent a night in Providence and was thinking of heading down to the Connecticut casinos for some poker, but at the last minute decided play 18 instead.  The course comes as advertised: "7400 yards from the back tees with rolling fairways and multiple elevation changes throughout, allowing golfers to use every club in their bag."  It still needs a little bit of maturing, and there is one notable oddity -- the first tee is quite a distance from the pro shop -- but it has the potential to be the prime choice for golf and gamble trips in the future.

3. The Ailsa Course, Turnberry Resort, Ayrshire, Scotland.  As perfect a place as I've ever been.  If you haven't read about it yet, click here.

4. The Oaks, The International Golf Club & Resort, Bolton, MA.  I had put this one on the 5-year list, but suggested that I would try to get there in 2012 because it was newly semi-private, and there's always a chance it would go back to full-time private.  I actually ended up playing there twice, 10 days apart.  It immediately vaulted to one of my favorite courses, a perfect mix of challenging but still fair, with fantastic conditioning and a tremendous hole variety -- not to mention some of the best views of the Worcester Hills and Mt. Wachusett around.  I cannot recommend this course enough.

Although it was an awfully good year for courses played, there will still be some carry-overs this year.  Before we get to the this, let's review the rules again:

• "Must plays" for the year (or the next 5 years) cannot be courses that I played last year.
• "Must plays" for this year should all be fairly local so that it's realistic; must plays for the 5-year list can be a bit more extended.
• I want to be somewhat pragmatic.

MUST PLAYS FOR 2013

1. The Springfield Country Club, West Springfield, MA.  As I mentioned last year, my friend Kevin (of Asher Invitational fame) joined here last year, but unfortunately I didn't get a chance to play.  That will change this year as I have been invited to their member-guest, a 5 day (!) affair.  Can't wait.

2. Shaker Hills Country Club, Harvard, MA.  Shaker has long been one of my favorite courses (and still features my favorite hole, the par-5 16th).  That's why it was shocking to hear that the course was shuttered and sold at auction last spring.  Fortunately, the buyers didn't decide to turn it into a movie production studio, and instead have been at work renovating the course and clubhouse.  I'm looking forward to getting back there this year to see the updates.

3. Taconic Golf Club, Williamstown, MA.  Golf.com ranks it as the #39 on their "Top 100 You Can Play" rankings; Golf Digest has it ranked as the #19 course overall in the state of Massachusetts.  I was fortunate enough to play there back when I was about 18 years old, and really I was too naive to appreciate it then.  But, lo and behold, when I looked at the schedule for The TOUR of Greater Boston, there it was, marked down for October 7.  I'll be there.

4. Acushnet River Valley Golf Course, Acushnet, MA.  Another carry-over from last year's list.  It's too good a course to go ignored, and now that I know there's a pro-level Titleist fitting facility nearby it's a no-brainer -- I think it's time for new wedges.

5. The Black, Bethpage State Park, Farmington, NY.  In the words of Jack Shephard, "We have to go back!"

MUST PLAYS FOR 2013-2017

1. Chambers Bay, University Place, WA.  I've said it once, and I'll say it again -- this course is #1 on the list until I play it.  It seems like some of the buzz for the course has died down recently, but I'm sure it will pick up again soon enough with the U.S. Open coming in 2015.  My post-Scotland obsession with links-style golf has only enhanced my desire to get there.  It will happen.

2. Cabot Links, Inverness, NS.  The only new course on the 5-year list this time around; this one is my newest obsession.  Not only is it Scottish-links, its in Nova Scotia ("New Scotland").  And the early reviews are spectacular.  Unfortunately, it turns out to be more difficult to get to than I had hoped (apparently there no longer is a Boston-to-Halifax ferry), but I'm convinced that the wife can be swayed to go away for another "unique" vacation.  

3. Pine Barrens, World Woods Golf Club, Brooksville, FL.  Too close to my parents' house to not get there.  It's only a matter of time.

4. Ballyowen Golf Course, Hamburg, NJ.  This is the 3rd course on this list which advertises itself as being born "in the Scottish tradition" or to actually have a picture of a man wearing a kilt playing the bagpipes on its website.  I may actually have a problem.

5. Boston Golf Club, Hingham, MA.  The reviews (ranked in the 70s on both the "top 100" courses lists).  The secrecy.  The proximity.  This: 

If anybody knows a way to get on there (or any members who want to invite me), just let me know!

The Short Game Statistic

This, by the way, might as well be a mathematics thesis paper.  I'm not saying I'd get a good grade, I'm just saying I spent a lot of time on it, and the math is complicated.  If that's not interesting to you, I suggest you stop reading now.

For those of you still here, I brought up a statistic I simply referred to as "short game" in my last post.  What I've attempted to quantify in one number is how effective were the shots taken within 20 yards of the green and on the putting surface for a given round.  It is essentially the complement to my previously described "shot efficiency" statistic.  I played around with a number of different formulas over the past several years, but last year I settled on one that I think works well.

First, a few assumptions:
1. If we are striving for even par, then using PGA tour data as a gold standard upon which "perfect golf" should be measured is reasonable.
2. Putting itself is an adequate measure of total short game (both putting and chipping/pitch shots/bunker play) since the closer your short game shots get you to the hole, the fewer putts you should have.

The PGA Tour uses "strokes gained-putting" as their #1 putting efficiency stat.  The basis for this is the work of Mark Broadie, a researcher at Columbia University, who determined the average number of putts for a PGA Tour pro from any given 1st-putt distance (see his paper here).  For example, the average PGA pro takes 1.5 putts to get in from 8 feet; 1.87 putts from 20 feet; and 2.06 putts from 40 feet.  Strokes gained-putting simply measures an individual player against the expected average for each of their putts; so if Phil Mickelson drains a 20 footer, he "gains" 0.87 putts against the average for that hole.  The total gains (and losses) for each hole are added up to provide a score for the round, and a player's average per-round score is their strokes gained-putting number for the year.  Last year Brandt Snedeker led the tour with 0.860 strokes gained-putting per round.

Now utilizing that statistic requires a precise measurement of the first putt distance for each hole; something that is not practical for the amateur golfer playing without the benefit of ShotLink technology.  So what we need to determine is a way to estimate the average 1st putt distance for a given round; and that brings us to the complicated math.

Mark Broadie has done some other research that comes in handy here, including the average distance from the hole for PGA pros on shots from 20-60 yards and 100-150 yards.  Using that, I determined a best-fit equation to describe the theoretical average 1st putt length:

P = (A/1.9259)^(1/1.2159)

where P = 1st putt length, and A = approach distance

Next, though, I needed to come up with an average approach shot distance (outside 20 yards) for a given round to plug in as "A" in the equation above.  This required several steps:
1. First I calculated the average distance per shot for the round -- this is essentially the same as the shot efficiency, except I eliminated penalty shots since those ultimately do not impact the short game play.  So avg distance per shot = course yardage / (score - putts - penalties).
2. Next I calculate the average rating per hole for the course; simply course rating / 18.
3. Then I calculate the percentage of the total distance that should be attributable to tee shots.  Based on the USGA standard to determine course rating, that factor is 2.39 (in other words, the tee shot is worth 2.39 course rating points).  So if the average rating per hole is 4.0 (i.e. a course with a rating of 72), then the percentage of the rating attributed to tee shots is 2.39/4 = 60%.
4. The inverse of that number (in the example, then, we are talking 40%) is the percentage of total distance that *should* be accounted for in approach shots to the green.  I multiply that number by the average shot distance calculated in step 1 to get a theoretical average approach shot distance.

In sum:

A = (1-T)*(PISE)

where A = avg approach shot distance, T = avg tee shot distance, and PISE = penalty-independent shot efficiency

So now we have our dependent variable to plug into the first equation above, thus determining the average 1st putt length for a given round.  One last step, though -- we need to compare that to the expected putts from that distance based on the PGA averages; rather than looking at a chart for each putting distance, I determined the equation for putts to hole from any distance (2-90 feet) as:

PP = 0.3759ln(P) + 0.6933

where PP = predicted putts, and P = avg 1st putt length

Confused yet?  Let's look at an example.  Last August, playing in the TOUR of Greater Boston Club Championship at Red Tail Golf Club, I shot 83 with 30 putts.  The course rating is 71.9, played over 6698 yards.  I had 1 penalty shot.  So:

A = (1-(2.39/[71.9/18]))*(6698/[83-30-1])

A = (1-.598)*(128.8)

A = (0.402)*(167.45) = 51.78 yards per average approach shot

and

P = (51.78/1.9259)^(1/1.2159)

P = 14.96 feet average 1st putt distance

Based on the probable putts equation, the average tour pro will take about 1.704 putts to get in from that distance; over 18 holes that comes out to 30.672 putts/round.  I took 30 putts, so my calculated strokes gained-putting for the round is +0.672.

Lastly, I wanted to put this on a similar scale to the shot efficiency data.  So I arbitrarily set the expected putts value at 75% (since that's the "average"), and 5 putts saved as 100% and 5 putts lost as 50% -- essentially assigned letter grades of "C" "A" and "F" to those scores respectively.  Using that scale, a score of +0.672 yields a short game score of 0.784.

________________________________________

Extremely complicated, I know; but once you have the formulas plugged into an Excel file, all you need is 5 data points from the round -- yardage, course rating, score, putts, and penalty shots.  And here's the thing: it works.  The numbers match up well with my subjective impressions of how well I chipped and putted for most of the rounds that I've measured.  My best short game round last year was in mid-August at Butter Brook, where I shot 85 but had just 27 putts -- 3.213 strokes gained-putting, for a short game score of 0.911.  One of my worst was during the first round of the Asher Invitational at Fox Hopyard, a round in which I hit 69% of fairways and 50% of greens, but shot only 89 after 37 putts (including four 3-putts) for an abysmal 6.145 strokes lost-putting; short game score 0.443.  Sometimes you just know when something is right, and this one feels that way.

The 2012 Analysis

It's time to take a look back at 2012 and try to figure out what what right, and what went wrong.

WARNING: There is some math/statistics that I don't bother to explain in this post.  Just trust me on it.

Overall, 2012 was not my strongest year.  My handicap index rose from the 5-range to 8.1, and I had a long stretch early in the season where my game was completely out of whack.  Having said that, I didn't always feel like I played that badly, but just that something was slightly amiss.

As usual, I prefer to look at some statistics to see if we can draw some conclusions.  Here is my 2012 data compared to my 5-year averages (2008-2012):

STATISTIC	2012	5-YR AVG
Driving Accuracy	45.7%	44.1%
Misses Left	28.6%	29.9%
Misses Right	24.1%	23.1%
Driving Distance	271.2 yds	267.6 yds
Greens in Reg.	40.0%	39.4%
Putts/Hole	1.84	1.80
Par 3 Avg	3.82	3.67
Par 4 Avg	4.79	4.78
Par 5 Avg	5.67	5.54
Scrambling	17.6%	21.8%
Sand Saves	12.2%	21.5%
Adj. Shot Efficiency	0.717	0.732
Short Game	0.623	0.673
Avg. Round Index	11.6	10.4

The final number is, of course, the most important.  I was more than a full shot worse per round in 2012.  Let's see where that shot came from, starting from the tee box.

DRIVING

Looking at the driving statistics, it was a good year for me overall.  My driving accuracy was slightly better than my average, and my misses left were down -- noteworthy since the pull-hook is usually my trouble shot.  My average distance was up as well.  Anecdotally, I can say that there were rounds where my misses were so bad that they crushed my scoring opportunity, but obviously on the whole it wasn't trouble off the tee that was my major problem.

IRON PLAY

The most basic look at iron play is, of course, greens in regulation.  My 2012 number was essentially identical to my 5-year average there, so on first blush I'd say there were no major problems there.  However, my scoring on par-3's (which eliminates the effect of the driver on scoring) was significantly worse than my norm.  So maybe my iron play wasn't so great after all.  But that was nothing compared to...

SHORT GAME

It's quite clear from the numbers that this was the biggest area of weakness last year.  Both my scrambling percentage (pars made when missing the green in regulation) and sand save percentage were way down.  That was something that was quite evident during the bad stretch of play early-on, when it was not uncommon to see me take multiple shots to get out of bunkers.  This must be corrected in 2013.

PUTTING

As the saying goes, you drive for show, and putt for dough.  I exemplified that last year.  Although the raw numbers look pretty similar (only 0.04 putts/hole worse in 2012 than usual), statistically speaking it was my worst category -- about 1.5 standard deviations worse than normal.

So obviously the weakest area of my game was on and around the greens last year.  Looking at the other 2 summary statistics, though, it's clear that nothing was quite up to par.  My average adjusted shot efficiency (explained here) trended worse than average, though not statistically so (only 0.6 standard deviations below the 5-year average).  The "short game" number will be explained in a future post, but like shot efficiency it's a statistic I devised to approximate how effective all those around-the-green and putting strokes were in a given round; last year's number was a full 1.7 standard deviations worse than normal for me.  That's terrible.

One other interesting note from looking at these numbers -- by doing a regression analysis for each of the statistics in regards to the average round index for the year, it turns out that the single most predictive statistic for good scores for me is misses left; in the years where the percentage of my misses are more to the right than the left, I am notably more likely to score lower.  The R-squared value isn't high (only 0.43), but it's the highest of anything I have 5 years worth of data for (n.b. I only have data for 3-years worth of scrambling and sand save percentages).  Which brings me back to the driving section of this analysis -- where I noted that the pull-hook is usually my problem shot.  Eliminating that, and spending some quality time on the short game practice area will be my two focusses going into 2013.

The Best Courses | The Membership

I know, it's been a while.

Let's just pretend that's not the case.  We'll get to the 2012 analysis and what's to come for 2013 soon.

Moving on.... Golf Digest has a new iPhone app for rating golf courses based on their "proprietary formula" that is used to determine their "Best Courses" lists.  The app is pretty terrible, filled with bugs and generally less fun than one would hope.

BUT (of course), I've been using that "proprietary formula" for a few years to rate the courses that I have played.  And after last summer's Scotland trip, I've got enough good ones in the database to put out a list of the 10 Best.

First, here are the categories Golf Digest uses (quoted from their website):

1. Shot Values
How well does the course pose risks and rewards and equally test length, accuracy and finesse?

2. Resistance to Scoring
How difficult, while still being fair, is the course for a scratch player from the back tees?

3. Design Variety
How varied are the golf course's holes in differing lengths, configurations, hazard placements, green shapes and green contours?

4. Memorability
How well do the design features (tees, fairways, greens, hazards, vegetation and terrain) provide individuality to each hole, yet a collective continuity to the entire 18?

5. Aesthetics
How well do the scenic values of the course (including landscaping, vegetation, water features and backdrops) add to the pleasure of a round?

6. Conditioning
How firm, fast and rolling were the fairways, and how firm yet receptive were the greens on the day you played the course?

7. Ambience
How well does the overall feel and atmosphere of the course reflect or uphold the traditional values of the game?

Read More http://www.golfdigest.com/golf-courses/2011-05/100-greatest-golf-courses-methodology#ixzz2Lh4BmpZh

Each category is given a score from 1-10, with 10 being absolutely perfect (in other words, grade tough).  Category #1 (which I interpret as "how fun/awesome is it to play the course") is counted twice, so the maximum score is 80.

With that in mind, here's my list, with the scores I'd assign them:

1. Turnberry Resort (Ailsa Course), Ayrshire, Scotland - 73.4 points.
2. St. Andrews Links (Old Course), St. Andrews, Scotland - 69.8 points.
3. Bethpage State Park (Black), Farmingdale, NY - 65.8 points.
4. TPC Boston, Norton, MA - 64 points.
5. Links at Lighthouse Sound, Bishopville, MD - 63 points.
6. Ballyowen, Hardyston, NJ - 62.7 points.
    Granite Links Golf Club (Milton-Quincy), Quincy, MA - 62.7 points.
8. The International (Oaks), Bolton, MA - 61.8 points.
9. Brae Burn C.C., Newton, MA - 61.6 points.
10. Turning Stone Resort (Atunyote), Verona, NY - 60.5 points.
      Red Tail Golf Course, Devens, MA - 60.5 points.

Honorable mentions: the other 2 courses at Turning Stone (Shenendoah 60 points; Kaluhyat 59.2 points), and Newport National in Middletown, RI (59.9 points).

My category leaders are:
Shot Values - St. Andrews (9.2)
Resistance to Scoring - Bethpage Black (10)
Design Variety - Turnberry (8.5)
Memorability - St. Andrews (10)
Aesthetics - Turnberry (9.9)
Conditioning - Turnberry (9.5)
Ambience - St. Andrews (10)

I look at that list and feel very fortunate.  4 of the courses have hosted major championships (Turnberry, St. Andrews, Bethpage, Brae Burn), 2 others have been the host to PGA Tour events (TPC Boston and Atunyote), and one was the site of a US Women's Public Links Championship (Red Tail).

The others?  Lighthouse Sound has been called the "Pebble Beach of the east" -- probably a stretch, but still gives you some clue to the natural beauty that surrounds it.  Ballyowen is a spectacular track, probably my favorite (US) course on the list.  The Oaks course at The International is the sister course to the multi-record-holding Pines course on the same property (longest hole, largest tee box, largest green).  And Granite Links is my new home.

Yes, that's right, I'm now a member of a club.

I'm not sure what that means for The Mission.  But I know I'm looking forward to playing a lot of rounds on the same course this year.  I know I now have access to a practice facility with a range, short game area, and multiple putting greens, and I can only hope that with that kind of practice that even par is not far away.