Sunday, April 24, 2011

The New Statistic

As a golfer I'm always looking for ways to improve my game, and as a golf nerd (or...just a nerd) I tend to analyze and over-analyze my statistics.  The problem with that is that the traditional golf statistics that are supposed to reflect "ball striking" -- fairways and greens in regulation -- aren't really that representative because they're too cut and dry.  For example, if you hit a 300 yard drive that just rolls a few inches into the first cut of rough then that's doesn't count as a fairway hit; or if you end up on the fringe but only 10 feet from the pin then that isn't going to tally a green in regulation. 

On the PGA Tour they use a few stats that are more useful, like total driving (which is simply a player's ranks in driving distance and fairways hit combined) or average distance to the hole, which is much more reflective of iron play than just the GIR.  But, of course, these don't apply or are simply impractical for the rest of us.

Over the past year or so I've been using a different way to analyze my ball striking, and I think it works well.  I call my statistic shot efficiency (SE), calculated as:

SE = [YDS/SHOT] / [EXP YDS/SHOT]

where:

YDS/SHOT = COURSE YARDAGE / [SCORE - PUTTS]
EXP YDS/SHOT = COURSE YARDAGE / [COURSE RATING - 36]

The higher your score, the better; and a "perfect" round would yield a score of 1 (or 100%).  

So essentially shot efficiency measures how much of the distance you are "supposed" to cover with each shot (according to the USGA) you were successfully able to cover.  It values greens in regulation over anything else, but also says a GIR on a longer hole of the same par is more valuable than a GIR on a shorter one.  (Unfortunately, it doesn't fully address the problem of a good approach shot to the fringe as I discussed above; one solution would be to count putts from the fringe as actual putts, even though that goes against the conventional way in which golf statistics are tabulated.)

To test it out I've plugged in every round I played in the past year, plus a handful of other "great" rounds from years past to see if it measures up based on (A) more conventional measurements of the round, such as the handicap index, and (B) how well my ball striking actually was -- was I "on" that day, or was my score more reflective of luck and/or scrambling? 

Here are a few examples:

1. 4/11/10 at Pinehills Golf Club (Nicklaus Course, Blue tees, CR 71.1, slope 131, 6640 yds) -- I shot 75 and had almost unquestionably my best round ever in terms of iron play based on my "feel" for the round.  By conventional metrics I hit 14 greens in regulation, 50% of fairways, with an average driving distance of 268 yards; for the round I had 35 putts.  I had 4 birdies, and was actually even par going onto the 14th hole (I previously wrote about that here).  Calculating the shot efficiency leads to a score of 0.867, or 86.7% efficient.

2. 7/10/10 at Ballyowen Golf Club (Black tees, CR 73.6, slope 131, 7094 yds) -- shot 78. This was probably the most consistent round I've ever played, hitting almost every drive right where I wanted to and really hitting almost no bad shots.  The conventional numbers: 11 GIR, 78.6% fairways, average driving distance 279 yards.  I had 34 putts.  The calculation yields a shot efficiency of 0.851; quite similar to the round at Pinehills.

Now, both of those rounds I struck the ball well but obviously didn't have a great day putting.  Let's look at 2 other rounds where (A) my putting was much better and score was about the same, and (B) my score was higher but my putting was even worse:

3. 4/26/08 at Braintree Municipal Golf Course (Blue tees, CR 71.6, slope 129, 6554 yds) -- score of 77, but with just 27 putts.  The regular numbers aren't bad: 9 GIRs, 71.4% fairways; I didn't keep track of driving distance for that round.  But I can tell you I was much more erratic, had 2 penalty shots on the same hole (the 11th, which has water but it should never come into play), and really saved the round with my best short-game day ever.  The SE score: 0.707, or just 70.7% efficient.

4. 5/18/10 at Cane Gardens Country Club (Black tees, CR 73.8, slope 136, 6977 yds) -- shot 80 with 37 putts.  This was probably my best driving day ever, which is masked by the 50% fairway percentage because there were a number of "just into the 1st cut" drives, and my average driving distance was a whopping 293 yards.  I hit 12 GIR, including 8 of the last 9.  The shot efficiency for that round was 0.872, which is actually the highest of any round that I analyzed.

Ultimately I'm pretty happy with the results and find that this is a good statistical reflection of ball striking -- or at least better than GIR and fairway percentage -- which is easily calculated with just a few basic numbers from each round.  For now I'll keep using it... and plan to include my shot efficiency for each future round that I post about.  Please feel free to use it yourself and let me know what you think!