The End

 I started this blog in August of 2008, with a challenging goal: to shoot an even par round of golf.  I knew at that time that my game was probably good enough, but I was never quite able to hold it together for a full 18 holes.  I hoped that by writing publicly about it I would get some motivation, and maybe this would be a nice golf journal to look back on someday (which, frankly, it is).

I was 30 years old then.  I'm 43 now.  And the game isn't getting easier.  I haven't written anything in almost 6 years.  There have been some close calls, but between life and kids there just hasn't been time or enough impetus to share it.

So I'm writing today to say this will be the last entry in this journal.  Because today I shot even par.

Without further ado, here's the blow-by-blow.

COURSE: Granite Links Golf Club (Milton-Quincy)

STATS: Par 71, Blue Tees 6379 yards, rating 71.6, slope 132

WEATHER: Overcast and about 50 degrees with steady 10 mph winds out of the northeast, and gusts upwards of 15-20 mph 

1st Hole (Milton 1, par 4) - A challenging opening hole, which today was made all the more difficult since I arrived only 5 minutes before my tee time, and I actually sprinted down to the tee box and had to ask the nice threesome in front of me if they wouldn't mind me jumping out in front of them -- I was playing solo and trying to get around quickly.  They were gracious enough to let me go.  So with only a quick couple of practice swings I launched a 3 iron off the tee and pulled it left.  I got a good bounce around the fairway bunker and settled in a decent lie in the rough.  Still rushing a bit to be sure to get quickly out of the way of the other group, I took aim with an 8-iron and just tried to hit a smooth shot to the front pin location.  There were some grounds crew members working on the bunker left of the green, which is sometimes a magnet for me.  But this time I hit a nice slight draw which settled just 5 feet short of the hole.  1 putt birdie.  SCORE: -1

2nd Hole (Milton 2, par 3) - A fairly straightforward par 3 with a deep green that can play anywhere from 145 to 175 yards depending on the pin location.  Today it was middle, and my 7-iron settled in pin high on the right side of the green.  Routine 2 putt par.  SCORE: -1

3rd Hole (Milton 3, par 4) - Easily the toughest hole on the course, it requires an accurate tee shot of about 240 yards, followed by a lengthy all-carry approach over water to a well protected and multi-tiered and sloped green.  Par is always a good score.  I hit a hybrid a little off the toe but still found the fairway, leaving 190 yards to the back-right pin.  A little draw plus the wind brought my 6-iron to the front of the green, leaving a 60+ footer.  My "lag" was over-cooked and actually hit the hole, bounced out, and finished about 10 feet past.  But I made the testy come-backer for par.  SCORE: -1

4th Hole (Milton 4, par 5) - A reachable par 5 that was playing straight downwind today.  First swing with the driver and I hit a good one, actually carrying the first fairway and bouncing up through the rough into the second fairway.  The approach is well uphill, and I hit a 9-iron a little fat, coming up short of the green.  

Here's where I should pause and say that I've been taking some lessons this winter.  Last week I played a round that was a bit of a mess -- I hit a lot of good full shots, but my wedge game was awful.  So in my last lesson we focussed on half- and three-quarter wedges, and let's just say it paid off: 58 degree to 6 feet, and another birdie.  SCORE: -2

5th Hole (Milton 5, par 4) - Running parallel to the 4th and back into the wind, this is a hole where a great drive can leave a short pitch shot and a birdie chance.  I did not hit a great drive.  On the second shot the ball was below my feet, but I hit a decent 7-iron to just short of the green.  My chip also wasn't the best but at least left an uphill putt, and I happily got up and down for par.  SCORE: -2

6th Hole (Milton 6, par 3) - Generally a tough par 3 with a tricky green, particularly when the pin is back left, which it was today at 190 yards, though down-wind.  I hit 7-iron again, and pushed it a bit, pin-high but missing the green right.  From that angle the green runs uphill until about 10 feet before the hole, then back downhill and severely right to left.  I felt my only option was to try to flop it and get it to stop quick...and I nearly holed it.  Tap-in par.  SCORE: -2

7th Hole (Milton 7, par 4) - A short par 4 that is sometimes reachable, but played longer today into the wind.  I hit a good drive to the safe part of the fairway, which left the exact shot that was a disaster the last time I played: a 60-70 yard pitch.  My distance control wasn't perfect, but at least it went straight, and I had about a 20-footer for birdie.  Par was good enough.  SCORE: -2

8th Hole (Milton 8, par 4) - There are a lot of different ways to play this hole, but most members try to hit the tee shot over the left fairway bunker, which leaves a more direct approach shot and takes the massive right-side sand area out of play.  I chose that route today and hit 3 wood to about 95 yards out.  Another wedge opportunity, and again I was happy with the result, hitting the middle of the green.  2 more putts for par.  SCORE: -2

9th Hole (Milton 9, par 5) - I have the hardest time hitting the fairway on this hole.  Being fair to myself, it's a difficult tee-shot where you have to pick a line with a specific carry distance; anything left of that will run down a steep slope and perhaps out of play, and a good shot that goes a little right might also find trouble.  But I consistently make the big mistake and hit a pull-hook left that gets into the trouble.  Today, though, was atypical: I hit the center of the fairway.  The 2nd shot is significantly uphill (about 2 clubs worth), and with the wind today the green wasn't reachable.  I hit a poor lay-up into the fairway bunker left, and although I got out of there fairly well I was still short of the green in 3.  My pitch shot was good, and left only about 6 feet, but the putt was never high enough.  SCORE: -1

10th Hole (Quincy 1, par 5) - Although there is a lot of trouble if you hit it offline at Granite Links, there are only a few areas that are out of bounds, and one of them is the road left of Quincy #1.  It's pretty far left to get there, but there's a big ravine with thick fescue and brush between that and the fairway which is mostly unplayable in the summer.  I hit my drive just a little left -- not flirting with OB, but in the summer I would have been searching for a while.  Instead today I found a decent lie and a clean swing, and I was able to advance a 7 iron back into the fairway.  It wasn't great from there -- 9 iron well short of the green, then a pitch shot that flew too far, and 2 putts from 20 feet.  SCORE: E

11th Hole (Quincy 2, par 3) - There are three tough par 3's on the Quincy 9, and this one is probably the hardest.  Even playing downwind it was a 5-iron for me, and a decent shot still found the green-side bunker.  I was short-sided, and went a little long with a 58-degree, then 2-putted for bogey.  SCORE: +1

12th Hole (Quincy 3, par 5) - After 3 straight bogeys I felt like I needed to get one back here.  I liked hearing Justin Rose talk about how he tried to play a match against the course in the 2nd round of the Masters last weekend, and right now in my match I was 1-down.  I absolutely piped a drive down the right side of the fairway, but the longer you hit it on this hole the more the fairway slopes right-to-left, and my ball ended up all the way across to the rough on the left.  Still, after 309 yards off the tee I had just 170 left, all uphill.  My 5 iron found the front of the green, and 2 putts meant my match against the course was back to even.  SCORE: E

13th Hole (Quincy 4, par 4) - This is a ski-slope downhill hole that plays significantly less than the scorecard distance.  I hit what I thought was a good drive but the wind grabbed it and I ended up well right, into the 3rd fairway.  That's a fine place to be, though, and I hit an okay 9 iron that also got caught up in the wind, and was left with a long 70 footer.  I hate 3-putts.  SCORE: +1

14th Hole (Quincy 5, par 4) - This is closer to a par 4-and-a-half, uphill and long from the back tees, though from the blues it's more playable.  I hit exactly the drive I wanted to, but it turned out my target was off and I ended up in the right rough.  My pitching wedge from there rode the wind all the way to the back of the green, but I managed a good 2-putt this time.  SCORE: +1

15th Hole (Quincy 6, par 3) - The 6th on Quincy is all about club selection, short but significantly downhill.  Today it was also down-wind, which I didn't love with a back pin position since flying over the green is basically dead.  I went with a smooth pitching wedge...and nearly holed it.  The pitch mark was 6 inches from the hole, and I had just about 5 feet for birdie.  SCORE: E

16th Hole (Quincy 7, par 4) - I play this hole really well.  It's a short risk-reward type par 4, easily drive-able, but the shot toward the green is blind and anything right or short of the target is out of play or at least unlikely to be found.  But for some reason I just have that blind shot grooved, and I average under par.  I went with 3-iron to be sure I wouldn't be short, and ended up a little long and left of the green (which is the safe miss).  My pitch shot was tricky -- a downhill lie playing back uphill to the green -- and I came up short, then putted from the apron and made a 4 or 5 footer for the par.  SCORE: E

17th Hole (Quincy 8, par 3) - This is another downhill par 3, but much longer than Quincy 6.  The green is massive, and I like to think of it like 4 different greens depending on where the pin is.  Today's location was in what I would consider the front-left of the back-right green; or, I guess, "middle."  With the wind at my back 7-iron was all I needed, and I tried to make the same smooth swing I had made back on #15, but I pushed it just a bit.  It hit the right edge of the green and bounced straight right...and into the woods.  Fortunately, I again got lucky with some early season conditions and had a clean lie that I was able to get back onto the green, and 2-putts from 40 feet was just fine this time.   SCORE: +1

18th Hole (Quincy 9, par 4) - Well, this was it.  1-over through 17, needing birdie, standing on the 18th tee, and playing dead into a gusting 15-20 mph wind.  The best line is basically straight at the green, even though from the tee box it looks like all the playable fairway is off to the right; I hit a low drive about 225 yards down the left side of the fairway, right where I was aimed.  The pin was tucked in the back right portion of the green, which sits in a little bowl, and most shots that get back to that location will funnel toward the pin.  I had about 100 yards, and felt good about a 50-degree wedge into that wind.  Ball contact was good but up in the air I had some butterflies that the wind was going to be too much, and it wasn't going to be enough club.  Fortunately I saw it disappear over the little hill in the green, which meant it was in the bowl...and when I got up to the green I saw my ball sitting pin-high, about 7 feet away:

SCORE: EVEN PAR

And that was that.  The long journey is complete.  All-in-all the round was very solid, with 5 birdies and 5 bogeys, no penalties, and of course a little luck.  But I finally halved the match against the course.  

(Now I have to go win one.)

The Update

Just a quick post to point out a new feature to the blog: at the bottom of each page you can find all my rounds going back to 2007, with graphics that show score to par, adjusted shot efficiency, and short game statistics, including median and upper and lower quartile ranges.  It's fun to scroll through (for me, anyway).

The Quarry Hills Invitational

One of the absolute pleasures of membership at a golf club is the opportunity to bring guests to enjoy a nice round at your home course.  And the pinnacle of guest hosting is definitely the member-guest tournament that nearly every club hosts over the summer.

Being honest, these events are basically opportunities for clubs (and their members) to showcase everything they've got in one big "my club is better than yours" contest.  But that doesn't mean they're not a lot of fun.  I previously wrote about part of my experience at my friend Kevin's member-guest (and the closest round I ever had to even par), which is just a fantastically run tournament; this year I had Kevin as my guest at the Quarry Hills Invitational at Granite Links.

Kevin hits his 2nd shot -- 4th Hole, Milton 9, Granite Links Golf Club

The Format
The event is played in 2-man teams, slotted into flights of 6 teams based on combined handicap.  I was playing as an 8 and Kevin as a 10, which put us as the top seed in the 4th flight (of nine).  On the weekend, each team plays a 9-hole match against the other 5 teams in their flight, with each hole being worth 1 point (you get 1 point if you win the hole, 1/2 point if your halve the hole, and 0 points if you lose the hole).  Additionally, on the Friday before the weekend there is an 18-hole better-ball event (at 90% handicap) for "bonus points" -- 2 points for the low team in the flight, 1 point for 2nd, 0 points for 3rd and 4th, and -1 point for 5th and 6th.  At the end of the weekend, the team with the most points wins the flight, and each flight winner then plays in a shootout to determine the overall champion.

Day 1: Better-Ball
Before we started, I told Kevin I thought we needed to shoot 6-under to win the flight.  It was a shotgun, and we started on the 5th hole on the Milton 9 and each made routine pars, so we got off to a good start.  From there we really played well as a team, with at least one of us putting up a good score on each hole; I shot 82 and Kevin 87, but together (with our strokes) we managed exactly what I had set as our goal -- a 6-under 65.  Along the way I found my putting stroke,* with just 26 putts for the round, making both a few long ones and several 4-8 footers.  Unfortunately, my prediction about the score we needed to win the flight was way off -- we were 3rd, with groups having shot 61 and 63 ahead of us!

*Side note: I put a new putter in play before the tournament started.  I realize this screams of desperation, but in truth, it wasn't really a new putter -- it's the same one I have in my bag down in Florida.  I love that putter, and happened to see it on sale at Golfsmith earlier in the week.  As you'll see, this was a great decision.

Day 2: 27 Holes (3 matches)
Saturday we played 3 matches covering all 27 holes of the club.  It was an awesome (and full) day of golf.  We got off to a rocky start, losing our first 3 holes, but battled back to halve the first match; then halved the second match; and finally won 5-4 in the 3rd match.  The key to the day was definitely our putting; we both hit it all over the place, but were very consistent on the greens.  Kevin made a 20-footer on the 9th of the 1st match to save the halve; I made a testy 15-footer on the 1st of the 2nd match for birdie.  But the 3rd match was where it really all clicked -- I had 7 putts through the first 6 holes, getting up-and-down 3 times and making two long ones for birdies.

Really, it was a great putting weekend all-around.  I had been struggling a bit with the flat stick this year, which I mostly attributed to my lack of play.  As I said, I decided to put a new putter in the bag this weekend.  I don't know if it was because of that, or the fact that the greens were rolling absolutely perfect, or that I actually played several days in a row -- or some combination of all of the above -- but I was seeing lines on the green like it was a video game.  It felt like everything had a chance to go in.

Here are my short-game stats for the year before and after the new putter:

Short Game Performance YTD (prior to new putter)

Short Game Performance at QHI (with new putter)

There's a little bit of fiction to those numbers since some putts were conceded and there were a few holes where I was out of play and didn't finish the hole -- but not many.  The vast majority of those 1.52 putts/hole represent made putts.

The kicker, though, is that it was putting that was ultimately our undoing.  We both missed 2-footers on the 8th hole of our 3rd match that would have garnered us an extra half-point.  And then there was day 3...

Day 3: 18 Holes (2 matches)

We finished day 2 in second place in our flight, but a distant 6 points out of the lead.  Our matches that day were against the 3rd and 1st place teams, so we needed to be on top of our game.  We started well, each making par on the first hole of the day.  On the 2nd hole (the par 3 #7 on the Granite 9) we cost ourselves a 1/2 point, as we were both on the green and both 3-putt (I hate 3-putts, even when the pin is in an impossible position on a steep slope), ending up with a halve.  We halved the next as well before we each made sandy-pars to steal a full point on the 9th.

The next hole (Granite #1) featured two of the best shots of the tournament.  The hole is a par-5 that plays severely downhill; most players hit a lay-up off the tee, and then must choose whether to lay-up again or hit a 200+ yard downhiller to go for the green.  It's an intimidating-looking hole, especially for those who haven't played it much, because it looks like there is trouble everywhere (in reality, the fairway is enormous).  Kevin struggled with it all weekend, and he did not make a committed swing on his tee-shot, pushing it well right and out of play in the woods.  After a drop and a layup short of the first hazard, he was left with about 260 yards in.  At this point in the match-play format there was no reason to play conservative, so he pulled out the 3-wood and let it rip... and rolled it just about 3 feet past the hole.  It was awesome.

Granite #1

Unfortunately, although that was the best shot I saw all weekend, he wasn't even the closest to the hole on the green, as our opponent hit his drive down the left side to the narrow strip of fairway, getting all the way down to a flat area that leaves just about a 7-iron into the green.  And he stuffed his next one inside Kevin's ball.  So despite Kevin's amazing par, we lost the hole by 2 shots.

We battled right back, though -- I halved with a par on #2, and then made a 15-footer from just off the green for birdie on #3 to get back to 1-up in the match with two holes left.  Both the other member and I made par on the par-3 4th; but then on the last hole Kevin and I both mis-hit our approach shots and had to battle to get up and down for pars.  Those weren't good enough, though, as we watched our opponents roll in a birdie to (yet again) halve the match.

So that left just one more match, and we were up against the leaders in our flight.  We actually had gained a half-point, so we needed 7-1/2 points in order to win the flight.  And we still had a 1-point lead for second (and therefore, the money).  We started this one on Milton #7, a potentially-drivable par 4, though with the wind in our face that was unlikely.  Kevin and I both hit good drives and put ourselves in decent shape to make birdies; but for the second hole in a row we watched our opponent make a nice putt and we weren't able to match.  We did get that point right back on #8 when everybody missed the green and I was the only one that managed to get up and down for par.  Everybody parred the 9th, but our opponent's guest was getting a shot there, so now we were back down a point.  We halved the next two before Kevin won us another point on #3, and I took home #4 to put us up 4-3 with two holes to play.  At that point 1st place was already out of play, but 2nd was a strong possibility.

On the par-4 5th I hit my drive well left, actually down into a bunker on the 4th fairway; my shot from there was never found, essentially putting me out of the hole.  But Kevin was on the green in 2, albeit a good 50 feet from the hole.  From the other positions on the green, it was likely that par would yield a half point.  It was a tricky downhill putt that required a precise line since it could really break either way depending on the line... but it ended up being speed that was the putt's undoing, as he ended up about 20 feet short.  Suffice to say, we headed to the last hole back to even in the match.

But 2nd place was still out there, and Kevin was the only one in our group to hit the green on the 188 yard par 3.  I was in the fescue on the right, but was able to get my pitch onto the green, leaving about 20 feet for par.  After our opponent's guest essentially put himself out of par contention, I was next to putt, and again I felt sure that I was seeing the line perfectly.  As soon as I hit it I was sure it was in, tracking perfectly uphill and slightly left to right... except it just skirted by the right edge.  Bogey.

Kevin's putt was all about speed again -- he had to go uphill over a ridge initially, but the last 5 feet were going to be back downhill.  He hit it just a bit too hard, and left a good 10 feet coming back; he, too, made bogey.  All we could hope for was a halve, which would require a miss from the other member on an 8-footer on the same line Kevin just had.  His putt?  Oh, it only did a full 360 around the cup before falling in.  We lost the match 5-4....

...and finished 1/2 point out of a tie for second place.  Ouch.

Final Analysis

Considering neither Kevin nor I have played much golf this year, I'm pretty happy with how we played.  We certainly were well-placed in the 4th flight since we ended up halving everything -- 3 matches were 4-1/2 to 4-1/2, and the other two were 5-4.  Obviously the missed opportunities on the last two holes hurt, but really I go back to the 8th hole of our 3rd match on Saturday (when we both missed 2-footers that would have won the hole) as the one that got away.

It was definitely a great weekend.  The course was in absolutely perfect condition, the weather couldn't have been better, and the atmosphere amongst the guys was what really made it fun.  I can't wait for next year.

The Amendment

I need to make an amendment to the last post on my short game statistic.  My brother (the math teacher) pointed out that making an "arbitrary" assignment of 5 putts saved as "perfect" didn't make a whole lot of sense after all the intricate calculations that came before that.  He recommended using normative data for strokes gained-putting to assess how the adjustment should be made.  Unfortunately, I didn't have normative data for strokes gained-putting.

So... I decided to go straight to the source.  I emailed the guru himself, Mark Broadie, and asked if he could help out.  And he graciously sent along the distribution of PGA strokes gained-putting ranging from +5.5 to -5.5.  Based on that, I was able to asses that (a) it is indeed normally distributed, and (b) the standard deviation is about 1.735.

One problem with that, though -- although I refer to the number as an estimated shots gained-putting, what I'm really trying to calculate is something more like "shots gained from short game shots."  So putting-only distribution doesn't quite fit (obviously there are fewer putts in a round than there are total short game shots including putts; therefore the range should be a bit bigger).  Fortunately, Broadie's research comes through again here, as it turns out an average round's short game play can be split into about 75% putts and 25% short game shots.

Based on all that, here's the final calculation for short game score:

SG = 0.75 + [(SGP*0.75)/1.735] * 0.1

where SG = short game, SGP = estimated shots gained-putting

That yields a short game score of 0.750 (or 75% efficient) when SGP = 0, and goes up or down by 10% for every standard deviation above or below the PGA mean, adjusted for the added short game shots.  Ultimately this works out close to my original "arbitrary" assessment, but it's definitely more precise -- and I like that.

Using this calculation, by the way, obviously changes my short game scores that I had reported in the previous post.  Here are the updated values:

Red Tail Golf Club (SGP +0.672) -- short game score 0.779 (down from 0.784 by original method).

Butter Brook Golf Club (SGP +3.213) -- short game score 0.889 (previously 0.911).

Fox Hopyard Golf Club (SGP -6.145) -- short game score 0.484 (previously 0.443).

The Short Game Statistic

This, by the way, might as well be a mathematics thesis paper.  I'm not saying I'd get a good grade, I'm just saying I spent a lot of time on it, and the math is complicated.  If that's not interesting to you, I suggest you stop reading now.

For those of you still here, I brought up a statistic I simply referred to as "short game" in my last post.  What I've attempted to quantify in one number is how effective were the shots taken within 20 yards of the green and on the putting surface for a given round.  It is essentially the complement to my previously described "shot efficiency" statistic.  I played around with a number of different formulas over the past several years, but last year I settled on one that I think works well.

First, a few assumptions:
1. If we are striving for even par, then using PGA tour data as a gold standard upon which "perfect golf" should be measured is reasonable.
2. Putting itself is an adequate measure of total short game (both putting and chipping/pitch shots/bunker play) since the closer your short game shots get you to the hole, the fewer putts you should have.

The PGA Tour uses "strokes gained-putting" as their #1 putting efficiency stat.  The basis for this is the work of Mark Broadie, a researcher at Columbia University, who determined the average number of putts for a PGA Tour pro from any given 1st-putt distance (see his paper here).  For example, the average PGA pro takes 1.5 putts to get in from 8 feet; 1.87 putts from 20 feet; and 2.06 putts from 40 feet.  Strokes gained-putting simply measures an individual player against the expected average for each of their putts; so if Phil Mickelson drains a 20 footer, he "gains" 0.87 putts against the average for that hole.  The total gains (and losses) for each hole are added up to provide a score for the round, and a player's average per-round score is their strokes gained-putting number for the year.  Last year Brandt Snedeker led the tour with 0.860 strokes gained-putting per round.

Now utilizing that statistic requires a precise measurement of the first putt distance for each hole; something that is not practical for the amateur golfer playing without the benefit of ShotLink technology.  So what we need to determine is a way to estimate the average 1st putt distance for a given round; and that brings us to the complicated math.

Mark Broadie has done some other research that comes in handy here, including the average distance from the hole for PGA pros on shots from 20-60 yards and 100-150 yards.  Using that, I determined a best-fit equation to describe the theoretical average 1st putt length:

P = (A/1.9259)^(1/1.2159)

where P = 1st putt length, and A = approach distance

Next, though, I needed to come up with an average approach shot distance (outside 20 yards) for a given round to plug in as "A" in the equation above.  This required several steps:
1. First I calculated the average distance per shot for the round -- this is essentially the same as the shot efficiency, except I eliminated penalty shots since those ultimately do not impact the short game play.  So avg distance per shot = course yardage / (score - putts - penalties).
2. Next I calculate the average rating per hole for the course; simply course rating / 18.
3. Then I calculate the percentage of the total distance that should be attributable to tee shots.  Based on the USGA standard to determine course rating, that factor is 2.39 (in other words, the tee shot is worth 2.39 course rating points).  So if the average rating per hole is 4.0 (i.e. a course with a rating of 72), then the percentage of the rating attributed to tee shots is 2.39/4 = 60%.
4. The inverse of that number (in the example, then, we are talking 40%) is the percentage of total distance that *should* be accounted for in approach shots to the green.  I multiply that number by the average shot distance calculated in step 1 to get a theoretical average approach shot distance.

In sum:

A = (1-T)*(PISE)

where A = avg approach shot distance, T = avg tee shot distance, and PISE = penalty-independent shot efficiency

So now we have our dependent variable to plug into the first equation above, thus determining the average 1st putt length for a given round.  One last step, though -- we need to compare that to the expected putts from that distance based on the PGA averages; rather than looking at a chart for each putting distance, I determined the equation for putts to hole from any distance (2-90 feet) as:

PP = 0.3759ln(P) + 0.6933

where PP = predicted putts, and P = avg 1st putt length

Confused yet?  Let's look at an example.  Last August, playing in the TOUR of Greater Boston Club Championship at Red Tail Golf Club, I shot 83 with 30 putts.  The course rating is 71.9, played over 6698 yards.  I had 1 penalty shot.  So:

A = (1-(2.39/[71.9/18]))*(6698/[83-30-1])

A = (1-.598)*(128.8)

A = (0.402)*(167.45) = 51.78 yards per average approach shot

and

P = (51.78/1.9259)^(1/1.2159)

P = 14.96 feet average 1st putt distance

Based on the probable putts equation, the average tour pro will take about 1.704 putts to get in from that distance; over 18 holes that comes out to 30.672 putts/round.  I took 30 putts, so my calculated strokes gained-putting for the round is +0.672.

Lastly, I wanted to put this on a similar scale to the shot efficiency data.  So I arbitrarily set the expected putts value at 75% (since that's the "average"), and 5 putts saved as 100% and 5 putts lost as 50% -- essentially assigned letter grades of "C" "A" and "F" to those scores respectively.  Using that scale, a score of +0.672 yields a short game score of 0.784.

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Extremely complicated, I know; but once you have the formulas plugged into an Excel file, all you need is 5 data points from the round -- yardage, course rating, score, putts, and penalty shots.  And here's the thing: it works.  The numbers match up well with my subjective impressions of how well I chipped and putted for most of the rounds that I've measured.  My best short game round last year was in mid-August at Butter Brook, where I shot 85 but had just 27 putts -- 3.213 strokes gained-putting, for a short game score of 0.911.  One of my worst was during the first round of the Asher Invitational at Fox Hopyard, a round in which I hit 69% of fairways and 50% of greens, but shot only 89 after 37 putts (including four 3-putts) for an abysmal 6.145 strokes lost-putting; short game score 0.443.  Sometimes you just know when something is right, and this one feels that way.

The 2012 Analysis

It's time to take a look back at 2012 and try to figure out what what right, and what went wrong.

WARNING: There is some math/statistics that I don't bother to explain in this post.  Just trust me on it.

Overall, 2012 was not my strongest year.  My handicap index rose from the 5-range to 8.1, and I had a long stretch early in the season where my game was completely out of whack.  Having said that, I didn't always feel like I played that badly, but just that something was slightly amiss.

As usual, I prefer to look at some statistics to see if we can draw some conclusions.  Here is my 2012 data compared to my 5-year averages (2008-2012):

STATISTIC	2012	5-YR AVG
Driving Accuracy	45.7%	44.1%
Misses Left	28.6%	29.9%
Misses Right	24.1%	23.1%
Driving Distance	271.2 yds	267.6 yds
Greens in Reg.	40.0%	39.4%
Putts/Hole	1.84	1.80
Par 3 Avg	3.82	3.67
Par 4 Avg	4.79	4.78
Par 5 Avg	5.67	5.54
Scrambling	17.6%	21.8%
Sand Saves	12.2%	21.5%
Adj. Shot Efficiency	0.717	0.732
Short Game	0.623	0.673
Avg. Round Index	11.6	10.4

The final number is, of course, the most important.  I was more than a full shot worse per round in 2012.  Let's see where that shot came from, starting from the tee box.

DRIVING

Looking at the driving statistics, it was a good year for me overall.  My driving accuracy was slightly better than my average, and my misses left were down -- noteworthy since the pull-hook is usually my trouble shot.  My average distance was up as well.  Anecdotally, I can say that there were rounds where my misses were so bad that they crushed my scoring opportunity, but obviously on the whole it wasn't trouble off the tee that was my major problem.

IRON PLAY

The most basic look at iron play is, of course, greens in regulation.  My 2012 number was essentially identical to my 5-year average there, so on first blush I'd say there were no major problems there.  However, my scoring on par-3's (which eliminates the effect of the driver on scoring) was significantly worse than my norm.  So maybe my iron play wasn't so great after all.  But that was nothing compared to...

SHORT GAME

It's quite clear from the numbers that this was the biggest area of weakness last year.  Both my scrambling percentage (pars made when missing the green in regulation) and sand save percentage were way down.  That was something that was quite evident during the bad stretch of play early-on, when it was not uncommon to see me take multiple shots to get out of bunkers.  This must be corrected in 2013.

PUTTING

As the saying goes, you drive for show, and putt for dough.  I exemplified that last year.  Although the raw numbers look pretty similar (only 0.04 putts/hole worse in 2012 than usual), statistically speaking it was my worst category -- about 1.5 standard deviations worse than normal.

So obviously the weakest area of my game was on and around the greens last year.  Looking at the other 2 summary statistics, though, it's clear that nothing was quite up to par.  My average adjusted shot efficiency (explained here) trended worse than average, though not statistically so (only 0.6 standard deviations below the 5-year average).  The "short game" number will be explained in a future post, but like shot efficiency it's a statistic I devised to approximate how effective all those around-the-green and putting strokes were in a given round; last year's number was a full 1.7 standard deviations worse than normal for me.  That's terrible.

One other interesting note from looking at these numbers -- by doing a regression analysis for each of the statistics in regards to the average round index for the year, it turns out that the single most predictive statistic for good scores for me is misses left; in the years where the percentage of my misses are more to the right than the left, I am notably more likely to score lower.  The R-squared value isn't high (only 0.43), but it's the highest of anything I have 5 years worth of data for (n.b. I only have data for 3-years worth of scrambling and sand save percentages).  Which brings me back to the driving section of this analysis -- where I noted that the pull-hook is usually my problem shot.  Eliminating that, and spending some quality time on the short game practice area will be my two focusses going into 2013.

The New Statistic, Part II

Last spring I wrote about a new statistic I devised called shot efficiency.  The idea was to try to analyze ball striking for a round, using a few simple numbers (course rating, yardage, score, and putts.  [See the post for the full formula.]  One of the flaws inherent in the formula is it doesn't fully account for how challenging a course is to play -- something that is fundamentally accounted for in the "other" part of the USGA course rating system, the slope.

The USGA suggests that the best way to determine how difficult it is to score on a given course or set of tees is to use the bogey rating.  Here's how they explain it:

This rating is the evaluation of the playing difficulty of a course for the bogey golfer. It is based on yardage, effective playing length and other obstacles to the extent that affect the scoring ability of the bogey golfer. To figure out this number, other than from looking at this database, the bogey golfer should take the Slope Rating®, divide it by the set factor (5.381 for men, and 4.24 for women) and add that to the Course Rating. The result is a target score for the bogey golfer, and is a truer yardstick of the challenge that lies ahead for the particular set of tees. Example: 96.3- which predicts the bogey golfer's average of his ten best (out of twenty) scores would be approximately 96.3 from this particular set of tees.

So how can we use this to adjust the shot efficiency formula?  The first step I came up with is to determine what I'm calling the course adjustment factor (CAF):

CAF = BOGEY RATING / STD BOGEY RATING

 where:

BOGEY RATING = [SLOPE / 5.381] + COURSE RATING

STD BOGEY RATING = [113 / 5.381] + COURSE RATING

I use 113 as the "standard slope" as that is the USGA definition of an average difficulty course.  From there I simply multiply the calculated shot efficiency by the course adjustment factor to yield the adjusted shot efficiency (ASE).

As an example, let's look at 3 rounds that have the same shot efficiency score to see how the adjustment impacts the rating.  As it turns out, I shot 79 in all 3 of these rounds, making it an even more ideal comparison:

1. 4/29/09 at Butter Brook Golf Club (Black Tees, 6702 yards, 72.6 rating, 133 slope).  I shot 79 with 30 putts, for a SE of 0.737.  The CAF comes out to 1.046, so the ASE is 0.771.  By the conventional metrics I hit 54% of fairways and 50% of GIR.

2. 8/2/09 at Brookmeadow Country Club (Gold Tees, 6585 yards, 71.7/123).  Again shot 79, this time with 31 putts, again the SE being 0.737.  The CAF for those tees is 1.017, so the ASE this time is 0.749.  The standard stats: 29% fairways and 44% greens.

3. 3/6/11 at Nancy Lopez Legacy CC in the Villages (Black Tees, 6906 yards, 73.2/135).  Shot 79 with 29 putts for (again) a SE of 0.737.  Here the CAF is 1.057, for an ASE of 0.779.  In that round I hit 50% of fairways and 33% of GIR.

Obviously these three rounds are all quite similar, but the intuitive difference that comes from the course difficulty is fairly represented by the subtle difference in the adjusted shot efficiency.  

Here's an even better example: in my 2008 round at Bethpage Black, I shot 94 with 36 putts, for a SE of 0.687.  The Black is largely considered one of (if not the) most difficult courses in the country, with a rating (at that time) of 76.6 and a slope of 144.  It's a great course to empirically understand how the slope rating works; even though the course is incredibly long, it plays even longer because of elevated greens, thick punishing rough, and the maniacally placed bunkers -- hence a high slope rating.  So when you apply the course adjustment factor (the highest of any course I've played at 1.123), the ASE jumps all the way up to 0.771.  And that's fair -- there's no way you can say an 84 at Braintree Municipal (rated at 70/123) has an equal shot efficiency to 94 at Bethpage, but that's how the calculation works out.  After applying the course adjustment, the difference in the 2 rounds is almost 10% (0.771 vs. 0.686).

On a final note, here are my top 5 rounds by adjusted shot efficiency over the past 3 years:

1. Butter Brook (7/17/11): score 73 (+1), SE 0.926, ASE 0.969.
2. Cane Garden (5/18/10): score 80 (+8), SE 0.868, ASE 0.925.
3. Granite Links (7/29/10): score 76 (+5), SE 0.851, ASE 0.913.
4. Red Tail (7/25/09): score 75 (+3), SE 0.851, ASE 0.911.
5. Butter Brook (6/23/10): score 74 (+2), SE 0.860, ASE 0.900.

Up next in the statistics category, I'll try to tackle the other part of the game: short game/putting.  

The New Year

A few thoughts on 2011 as I try to kill time before the Super Bowl....

• It wasn't my best golf season.  Although I had one round that was technically the closest I've ever been to even par, it was a little fluky (hinging on an eagle on the 16th hole to get back to +1), and the rest of the year was definitely a step backward.  My handicap index rose from 5.1 to 6.7 over the course of the year, and almost every statistic was worse than the year before:

• I've been to the driving range twice and played 2 rounds of golf (in The Villages) so far in 2012.  One thing I immediately noticed at the range was that my grip had gotten way too strong, which likely was a big contributing factor to my pull-hook tendency last year.  It cliche to say that everything starts with grip, but it's also true -- in my 2 rounds so far this year I virtually eliminated the pull-hook off the tee.  
• I was actually very happy with how I played in Florida, but my bunker play was absolutely horrendous -- I hit 5 greenside bunkers, and every time it took me more than 1 shot to get out, and 4 of those times took 3 shots.  That's a minimum of 9 shots lost over 2 rounds.  In beginning of the year I expect my short game to be weak, but come on.  That has to change.
• Big news for 2012: I will probably be playing a round at Turnberry's Ailsa Course, site of the 2009 (British) Open Championship.  You will most definitely be getting a blog post after that.
• Prediction for today: Patriots 27, Giants 23.

The Mid-Season Analysis

This has been a funny year on the golf course for me.  For some reason I have not been nearly as consistent as I was in the past few years -- I'm still having some good rounds, but I'm having a lot more bad rounds than I'm used to.  My initial thought was that I'm not playing as much, but in looking at it I've actually played only 1 fewer round through July 20th this year than I did last year (27 vs. 28).  Over that time I've had 8 rounds in the 70s (vs. 7 in the 70s through this date last year), but I've had 7 rounds in the 90s (as compared to 5 last year, one of which was at the extremely difficult TPC Boston).

So... what happened?

Well, let's look at some stats:

As you can see, many of the numbers are pretty similar, especially in the short game areas.  Even my par and birdie-or-better percentages are almost exactly the same (which, obviously, means I'm having more blow-up holes this year).  But there's a big difference in fairway percentage, where I'm hitting 16% fewer than last year, and (probably in part due to the fairways being down) greens in regulation are 12% less than 2010.


In order to tease that out a little more I looked at my driver fairway percentage and my 1-hybrid fairway percentage (which are the two clubs I hit off the tee most often).  The 1-hybrid percentage is roughly the same (about 50%), but my fairways hit with the driver is dramatically down (23% worse than last year).  


I think the difference is more philosophical than anything else.  Historically my bad miss off the tee has been the pull-hook; last year I really focused on taking the left miss out of play with the driver, hitting predominantly a fade (which was in general my natural ball flight with all my clubs).  This winter, though, I worked at the range on getting my hands more inside, which has resulted in a little bit of a lower ball flight and a more natural draw.  And the stats again bear that out -- of my misses, 61% are to the left this year (as compared to 49% last year).  I'm guessing that relates to the most telling number: I'm having 3 penalty shots per round this year, vs. only 2.1 per round last year.


It looks like going forward I'm going to have to re-commit to the power-fade off the tee and take the pull-hook back off the table.

The Heat (The Humidity)

Maybe I'm getting old.

Maybe it's that my back and shoulders don't loosen up as easily when it's cool out.  Maybe I'm like a Dominican pitcher who only gets going when the summer weather rolls in.

Just call me Pedro.

click for larger image

For some reason, I play my best golf in July.  There's really no question about it.  See the chart on the right side -- I'm almost a full 2 shots better on average in July as compared to any other month.  I seem to have a "hot streak" almost every year in July when I feel like even par is legitimately in play almost every time I take to the course.  In 2009 I whipped off 78-77-75-74 over an 8 day span; in 2010 I had rounds of 75, 76, 77, 78 and 79.  And almost every one of those rounds has been played (at least as far as I remember) in sweltering heat.

The past 2 days have been 85-95 degrees and very humid in the Boston area.  And I'm +8 over 36 holes during that time span.  Yesterday, at Butter Brook, I shot 73.

Yes, that's right, +1.

I don't want to go through the hole round blow-by-blow, but thinking back on it there were a few key shots:

2ND HOLE, 1ST PUTT  After making bogey on the 1st, I hit 5 iron to the middle of the fairway and 8-iron to pin-high about 18 feet from the hole.  I putted that one a good 15 feet past, and missed the come-back for a dreaded 3-putt.  Grrrrrrrrr. (+2 for the round)

4TH HOLE, APPROACH SHOT  After hitting the right side of the fairway on the dogleg left, I pulled a 6-iron into the greenside bunker, leaving myself short-sided with a bad lie in the sand.  I got out of the trap but had an impossible putt (from the top of a ridge about 25 feet across the green with the cup about 3/4 of the way down a hill.  And... I hate 3-putts!!!  (+4 for the round)

8TH HOLE, TEE SHOT  The par-3 was playing at about 165 yards with the pin in front, slightly down wind.  I hit 7-iron directly at the stick; it landed about 6 inches in front, bounced and then spun just a bit to the side, 3 inches from the hole.  There were 2 members of the grounds crew up watering the green at the time; both said they couldn't believe it didn't go in.  Closest I've ever been to an ace.  (It turned out, by the way, that the two on the green were, in fact, the owners.)  (+2 for the round)

16TH HOLE, 2ND SHOT  After reeling off 10 straight holes at par or better (-2 over that stretch), I had just made a bogey on the difficult par-4 15th and stood at +3 on the 16th tee.  The odds were against me, but eagle on the par-5 16th (which I'd managed before) would go a long way.  My drive, unfortunately, did not go a long way -- only about 225 yards, but in the middle of the fairway.  According to my GPS I had 277 to go, which meant I didn't have enough club unless I got a real favorable roll out.  I went with 1-hybrid because the trajectory would be low and I usually do get a lot of top spin; maybe -- just maybe -- it would get me home or close to where I could chip in.  I told myself to stay smooth, don't overswing (because that almost always gets me to snap-hook with my hybrids)... and I pured it.  I watched at it sailed down the right side and caught the slope from there and ran toward the green.  From my position on the fairway it looked pretty good, but I couldn't tell for sure if it got home or not.

It was home.  3 feet from the pin.  Tap in eagle.  (+1 for the round)

I needed to get up and down
from 82 yards in a bunker.

18TH HOLE, PUTT  I made a fairway-green-2-putt par on 17, which meant it would take birdie on the 18th to get to even par.  I do not play the 18th hole at Butter Brook well (average 0.9 strokes over par, with 4 double-bogies or worse in 17 prior rounds from the black tees).  To make matters worse, my tee ball settled in the fairway bunker about 85 yards out on the right side.  I hit about as good a shot as I could from there, pitching wedge to the middle of the green, 22 feet from the hole (I paced it off).  The putt was a double breaker -- slightly uphill and left-to-right over the first two thirds, and then just downhill and right to left over the last 6 or 7 feet.  I picked a line that was starting about 6 inches left of the hole... and that's almost exactly where it ended up, 6 inches left.  Oh well.  +1.  (Shot efficiency 0.930, my personal best.)

This was the putt left for even par.

Hopefully I won't have to wait until next July to come that close again.

The On Course Apps

I am, by nature, an analytical person.  I create Excel spreadsheets for everything.  On the golf course, that also means that I want to know all the little things before I take a shot -- which way is the wind blowing, where does the ball funnel on the green ahead, and, of course, what's my yardage to the hole?

But "about 150 yards" won't do for me.  I want to know if it's 147 or 153.  Does that finite level of detail really make a difference?  Probably not -- hitting an "about 150 yards" shot will do just fine in either case.  But mentally I feel better if I know the exact number, and feeling good about the shot is definitely the first step to execution.

When you want to know the exact numbers these days there are basically 3 options: (1) hire Steve Williams to carry your bag, (2) get a laser rangefinder, or (3) get a GPS.

It turns out Stevie doesn't come cheap (though lately he has some free time on his hands).  So the question ultimately comes down to rangefinder vs. GPS.  There are pluses and minuses to both -- rangefinders are more precise, but you are limited to targets you can actually see; GPS's can give you a hole overlay and allow you to measure distances to a variety of spots on the course quickly, but ultimately operate on more of a "plus or minus a few yards" basis.

Because of the convenience of having an iPhone, I ultimately decided on a GPS system a few years ago.  After a great deal of research (and a good recommendation from my brother), I started using the Golfshot app 2 years ago, and honestly, I can't recommend it enough.  Here are the features I like about it:

Hole Overlays  It's quite difficult to play a course you've never seen before unless you have a map; Golfshot gives you a crystal clear aerial view of every hole so you can see where you're going.  Plus, because you can choose any spot on the hole as your target for distance measurement (just by touching it on the map) it allows you to really know if you can cut that corner or carry that sand trap.

Automated Measurements  In addition to user defined targets, almost every point of interest (hazards, obstacles, doglegs, etc) are defined and measured on the "main" screen.  It also gives you the front, back and middle of the green distances.

Scoring and Stat Tracking  I never use a scorecard anymore because I can easily and quickly keep my score as I go with Golfshot.  It also automatically keeps tracks of my statistics -- fairways, greens in regulation, scrambling, sand saves, putts/hole and putts/green in regulation.  Both on the native application on the phone and on their website you can view your past rounds and scorecards, and you can customize date ranges for your statistics to see how your game is changing.  Here's a snapshot of my last 20 rounds:

35,000 Courses  There are over 35,000 courses in the database with visual overlays and GPS distances -- that means essentially every course in North America, and then some.  The aerial images are updated almost constantly (or at least it seems that way) so I don't think I've ever been looking at an out-of-date measurement.  And unlike many other GPS systems, you don't have to pay to download more courses, and there are no annual fees.  You get everything for just a $30 one-time fee.  It's pretty incredible.

The bigger question, of course, is does all this help?  Obviously it's not the only factor in these calculations, but since I started using Golfshot on 9/2/09 my fairway percentage has gone up from 42.7% to 44.8%, and my greens-in-regulation have increased from 38.5% to 39.2%.  Plus it's the envy of almost every one I play with -- and maybe that gives me an edge, too.

Screen Shots:

[Many thanks to reader Neil who suggested this as a topic for a post!]
[And no, I'm not affiliated with golfshot.com in any way.]

The New Statistic

As a golfer I'm always looking for ways to improve my game, and as a golf nerd (or...just a nerd) I tend to analyze and over-analyze my statistics.  The problem with that is that the traditional golf statistics that are supposed to reflect "ball striking" -- fairways and greens in regulation -- aren't really that representative because they're too cut and dry.  For example, if you hit a 300 yard drive that just rolls a few inches into the first cut of rough then that's doesn't count as a fairway hit; or if you end up on the fringe but only 10 feet from the pin then that isn't going to tally a green in regulation. 

On the PGA Tour they use a few stats that are more useful, like total driving (which is simply a player's ranks in driving distance and fairways hit combined) or average distance to the hole, which is much more reflective of iron play than just the GIR.  But, of course, these don't apply or are simply impractical for the rest of us.

Over the past year or so I've been using a different way to analyze my ball striking, and I think it works well.  I call my statistic shot efficiency (SE), calculated as:

SE = [YDS/SHOT] / [EXP YDS/SHOT]

where:

YDS/SHOT = COURSE YARDAGE / [SCORE - PUTTS]

EXP YDS/SHOT = COURSE YARDAGE / [COURSE RATING - 36]

The higher your score, the better; and a "perfect" round would yield a score of 1 (or 100%).  

So essentially shot efficiency measures how much of the distance you are "supposed" to cover with each shot (according to the USGA) you were successfully able to cover.  It values greens in regulation over anything else, but also says a GIR on a longer hole of the same par is more valuable than a GIR on a shorter one.  (Unfortunately, it doesn't fully address the problem of a good approach shot to the fringe as I discussed above; one solution would be to count putts from the fringe as actual putts, even though that goes against the conventional way in which golf statistics are tabulated.)

To test it out I've plugged in every round I played in the past year, plus a handful of other "great" rounds from years past to see if it measures up based on (A) more conventional measurements of the round, such as the handicap index, and (B) how well my ball striking actually was -- was I "on" that day, or was my score more reflective of luck and/or scrambling? 

Here are a few examples:

1. 4/11/10 at Pinehills Golf Club (Nicklaus Course, Blue tees, CR 71.1, slope 131, 6640 yds) -- I shot 75 and had almost unquestionably my best round ever in terms of iron play based on my "feel" for the round.  By conventional metrics I hit 14 greens in regulation, 50% of fairways, with an average driving distance of 268 yards; for the round I had 35 putts.  I had 4 birdies, and was actually even par going onto the 14th hole (I previously wrote about that here).  Calculating the shot efficiency leads to a score of 0.867, or 86.7% efficient.

2. 7/10/10 at Ballyowen Golf Club (Black tees, CR 73.6, slope 131, 7094 yds) -- shot 78. This was probably the most consistent round I've ever played, hitting almost every drive right where I wanted to and really hitting almost no bad shots.  The conventional numbers: 11 GIR, 78.6% fairways, average driving distance 279 yards.  I had 34 putts.  The calculation yields a shot efficiency of 0.851; quite similar to the round at Pinehills.

Now, both of those rounds I struck the ball well but obviously didn't have a great day putting.  Let's look at 2 other rounds where (A) my putting was much better and score was about the same, and (B) my score was higher but my putting was even worse:

3. 4/26/08 at Braintree Municipal Golf Course (Blue tees, CR 71.6, slope 129, 6554 yds) -- score of 77, but with just 27 putts.  The regular numbers aren't bad: 9 GIRs, 71.4% fairways; I didn't keep track of driving distance for that round.  But I can tell you I was much more erratic, had 2 penalty shots on the same hole (the 11th, which has water but it should never come into play), and really saved the round with my best short-game day ever.  The SE score: 0.707, or just 70.7% efficient.

4. 5/18/10 at Cane Gardens Country Club (Black tees, CR 73.8, slope 136, 6977 yds) -- shot 80 with 37 putts.  This was probably my best driving day ever, which is masked by the 50% fairway percentage because there were a number of "just into the 1st cut" drives, and my average driving distance was a whopping 293 yards.  I hit 12 GIR, including 8 of the last 9.  The shot efficiency for that round was 0.872, which is actually the highest of any round that I analyzed.

Ultimately I'm pretty happy with the results and find that this is a good statistical reflection of ball striking -- or at least better than GIR and fairway percentage -- which is easily calculated with just a few basic numbers from each round.  For now I'll keep using it... and plan to include my shot efficiency for each future round that I post about.  Please feel free to use it yourself and let me know what you think!

The 2010 Wrap-Up

Winter, you bastard.

It's been a long one so far here in New England, but in the past week or so there have been enough warmer days and melting -- plus watching the Pebble Beach Pro-Am -- to make one start to pine for golf season again.  I've even made it to the range a few times... and then got my clubs regripped... and then bought some new golf apparel.

So, yeah, I'm ready for spring.

But before that happens, we have to recap the 2010 season.  It's been a while since I've written (6 months, to be exact), and truthfully there wasn't much to write about on the mission front at the tail end of the season.  The highlight round for me was the 2nd day of the TOUR of Greater Boston Club Championship at Atlantic Country Club.  Here's the quick rundown: