The Bottom

In addiction treatment, there's a long-standing saying that goes something like "you have to hit rock bottom before you can rise up." 

I am a golf addict.  And in terms of my quest for even par, I believe I've hit rock bottom.

Two years ago I had 5 rounds that were within 5 shots of par.  Last year I had 2 such rounds.  This year?  Zero.  My best round this year is +9.  And even worse, of my last 8 rounds, 5 have been in the 90s.

I've been so inconsistent I can't even pinpoint where the trouble is.  In one round I hit 50% of fairways and 50% of greens in regulation (including 9 out of 12 in one stretch) and still shot 94 (the problem: terrible short game).  Two weeks later I had 9 penalty shots en route to another 94. 

But there are signs that my game is coming back around.  On Tuesday this week I went to the driving range for the first time since the beginning of the season.  Practice helps!  (Who knew?)  I worked almost exclusively on staying connected through the swing by practicing with a head cover tucked in my left armpit (see example below).  I truly believe this is the perfect drill, and a novice could probably learn the proper swing by just hitting golf balls this way without any other instruction (well, except maybe learning proper grip and "keep your head down").



Yesterday I had the distinct pleasure of being invited to play at Brae Burn Country Club in Newton, MA.  Brae Burn is one of the truly historic golf clubs in New England, having hosted the 1919 US Open as well as several US Amateur tournaments.  It's currently ranked as the number 18 course in Massachusetts by Golf Digest.  And it was spectacular, with uniquely contoured holes and absolutely pristine conditions.  And finally my game seemed to be back on track, at least for the first 12 holes.  My very first shot was a pull-hook, but after that I played nearly flawlessly on the front 9, carding a 3-over 38 that was marred by 3 missed putts inside of 6 feet.

I followed the front with a birdie on the short par-5 10th hole to get to 2-over, then bogey-par on 11 and 12.  Unfortunately I fell apart after that, going 9-over on the next 5 holes before recovering with a par on the 18th.  So definitely not a great round, but I really had it going for 12 holes, which is a lot better than I can say for any other round in the past month.

I plan to get back out this weekend.  Here's hoping I can put 18 holes together and start to get this mission back on track.

The Must Plays: 2012 Edition

It's March 19th.  I just played my 6th round of the year yesterday.  It's 75 degrees in Boston today.  I'm not sure I know where I am right now.

Having already played 6 rounds, I feel a little remiss that I haven't posted my annual "Must Plays" list for the year... but then again, after looking back through the archives, it seems I didn't post one at all last year.  Oops.

Anyway, before we get to the lists, let's go back over the ground-rules:

• "Must plays" for the year (or the next 5 years) cannot be courses that I played last year.
• "Must plays" for this year should all be fairly local so that it's realistic (with one notable exception this year, as explained below); must plays for the 5-year list can be a bit more extended.
• I want to be somewhat pragmatic.

As it turns out, I've already played one of the Must Plays for this year, so let's start there:

MUST PLAYS FOR 2012


1. Wintonbury Hills Golf Course, Bloomfield, CT.  Wintonbury marks the approximate half-way point between Westchester County, NY and Boston, which makes it an ideal meeting point for my brother and I (assuming, of course, your definition of "ideal" is an hour and 45 minute drive to play golf.  We discovered it 2 years ago (and I wrote about it here), and it is well worth the drive time.  We played it last last weekend, just shortly after it opened, and it was everything I remembered -- great hole variety, a definite challenge but fair, with friendly staff and excellent conditions (though the last part I'm grading on a scale given the time of year).  Even though I've already played it this year, I'd still put it on the Must Plays (again) list for this year.

2. Meadow Brook Golf Course, Richmond, RI.  Another course that will require a bit of a drive, but one I'm definitely planning on getting to soon.  Apparently this was once a rinky-dink pastureland track; now redesigned and under new management it ticks in at 7400 yards from the tips with a course rating of 74.4 and slope of 130.  The pictures on the website look fantastic.  It's close to the 2 Connecticut casinos.  I'm all in.

3. Acushnet River Valley Golf Course, Acushnet, MA.  Acushnet (the town, not the course) is the home base for Titleist.  The course is probably the best bargain in Massachusetts: under $60 including cart on the weekend for a Brian Silva-designed course with light play and great conditions.  I've also had some success here, posting a 74 that flirted with even par a few years ago.  I need to go back.

4. The Springfield Country Club, West Springfield, MA.  This winter I had my first close friend join a country club (the esteemed Dr. Asher, founder and chairman of the Asher Invitational).  I'm psyched, and completely looking forward to an invite to the member-guest this summer (hint hint).  The course itself is a Donald Ross design, 6500 yards, par 72 (somewhat uniquely 35 on the front and 37 on the back).  Can't wait to test it out.

5. The Ailsa Course, Turnberry Resort, Ayrshire, Scotland.  July 31, 2012, 7:00am.  That's my tee time.  It is (I believe) the first tee after the British Senior Open Championship concludes.  I literally cannot wait.  Every golf thought I've had since this became a reality has been Turnberry-focused -- I'm playing every round as a practice round for the Scotland links and wind.  Even if I shoot 110, it's going to be awesome.  (But, of course, the goal is even par.)

Any tips, Mr. Watson?

MUST PLAYS FOR 2012-2016


1. Chambers Bay, University Place, WA.  Still #1 on this list, and it will likely remain that way until I play it.  In fact, it seems like it would be the perfect warm-up for Turnberry, doesn't it?  Ideally, I'd love to get there before it hosts the US Open in 2015.  Keeping my fingers crossed....

2. World Woods Golf Club, Brooksville, FL.  There are 2 courses here, but the feature is Pine Barrens, ranked #55 on Golf Digest's Top 100 Public list.  The other course (Rolling Oaks) is supposed to be no slouch, either.  They are supposedly modeled after the top 2 courses in the country (Pine Valley and Augusta National, respectively).  World Woods is located about an hour from where my parents live, so there's no question that I'll be getting there sooner or later.  (As a bonus, the practice facility there is generally considered either the best or 2nd best in the world, depending on your publication of choice.)

3. Ballyowen Golf Course, Hamburg, NJ.  Scottish links in central Jersey?  You better believe it.  I think this is my favorite course that I've ever played.  That probably bodes well for the Turnberry trip, no?  They host an annual "Brews and Birdies" tournament, played as a 2-man scramble.  At some point my brother and I will be participating.

4. The Oaks, The International Golf Club & Resort, Bolton, MA.  The International is supposed to be spectacular.  The "other" course -- The Pines -- is the longest course in North America at nearly 8400 yards, and it remains exclusive to members.  The Oaks, however, is newly offering "select daily tee-times" to the public.  In truth, I should probably include this on the list of must-plays for 2012, because you never know how long the opportunity will last.

5. Boston Golf Club, Hingham, MA.  This is probably a pipe dream.  But before Gil Hanse was the talk of the golf world for winning the rights to build the Olympics course in Rio, he designed the very exclusive Boston Golf Club, and it is considered a secret gem of New England, with a rugged style similar to Pine Valley.  There's virtually no way of playing there without being invited by a member; and, to my knowledge, I do not know any members.  But I'm listening if anyone is offering!

The New Statistic, Part II

Last spring I wrote about a new statistic I devised called shot efficiency.  The idea was to try to analyze ball striking for a round, using a few simple numbers (course rating, yardage, score, and putts.  [See the post for the full formula.]  One of the flaws inherent in the formula is it doesn't fully account for how challenging a course is to play -- something that is fundamentally accounted for in the "other" part of the USGA course rating system, the slope.

The USGA suggests that the best way to determine how difficult it is to score on a given course or set of tees is to use the bogey rating.  Here's how they explain it:

This rating is the evaluation of the playing difficulty of a course for the bogey golfer. It is based on yardage, effective playing length and other obstacles to the extent that affect the scoring ability of the bogey golfer. To figure out this number, other than from looking at this database, the bogey golfer should take the Slope Rating®, divide it by the set factor (5.381 for men, and 4.24 for women) and add that to the Course Rating. The result is a target score for the bogey golfer, and is a truer yardstick of the challenge that lies ahead for the particular set of tees. Example: 96.3- which predicts the bogey golfer's average of his ten best (out of twenty) scores would be approximately 96.3 from this particular set of tees.

So how can we use this to adjust the shot efficiency formula?  The first step I came up with is to determine what I'm calling the course adjustment factor (CAF):

CAF = BOGEY RATING / STD BOGEY RATING

 where:

BOGEY RATING = [SLOPE / 5.381] + COURSE RATING

STD BOGEY RATING = [113 / 5.381] + COURSE RATING

I use 113 as the "standard slope" as that is the USGA definition of an average difficulty course.  From there I simply multiply the calculated shot efficiency by the course adjustment factor to yield the adjusted shot efficiency (ASE).

As an example, let's look at 3 rounds that have the same shot efficiency score to see how the adjustment impacts the rating.  As it turns out, I shot 79 in all 3 of these rounds, making it an even more ideal comparison:

1. 4/29/09 at Butter Brook Golf Club (Black Tees, 6702 yards, 72.6 rating, 133 slope).  I shot 79 with 30 putts, for a SE of 0.737.  The CAF comes out to 1.046, so the ASE is 0.771.  By the conventional metrics I hit 54% of fairways and 50% of GIR.

2. 8/2/09 at Brookmeadow Country Club (Gold Tees, 6585 yards, 71.7/123).  Again shot 79, this time with 31 putts, again the SE being 0.737.  The CAF for those tees is 1.017, so the ASE this time is 0.749.  The standard stats: 29% fairways and 44% greens.

3. 3/6/11 at Nancy Lopez Legacy CC in the Villages (Black Tees, 6906 yards, 73.2/135).  Shot 79 with 29 putts for (again) a SE of 0.737.  Here the CAF is 1.057, for an ASE of 0.779.  In that round I hit 50% of fairways and 33% of GIR.

Obviously these three rounds are all quite similar, but the intuitive difference that comes from the course difficulty is fairly represented by the subtle difference in the adjusted shot efficiency.  

Here's an even better example: in my 2008 round at Bethpage Black, I shot 94 with 36 putts, for a SE of 0.687.  The Black is largely considered one of (if not the) most difficult courses in the country, with a rating (at that time) of 76.6 and a slope of 144.  It's a great course to empirically understand how the slope rating works; even though the course is incredibly long, it plays even longer because of elevated greens, thick punishing rough, and the maniacally placed bunkers -- hence a high slope rating.  So when you apply the course adjustment factor (the highest of any course I've played at 1.123), the ASE jumps all the way up to 0.771.  And that's fair -- there's no way you can say an 84 at Braintree Municipal (rated at 70/123) has an equal shot efficiency to 94 at Bethpage, but that's how the calculation works out.  After applying the course adjustment, the difference in the 2 rounds is almost 10% (0.771 vs. 0.686).

On a final note, here are my top 5 rounds by adjusted shot efficiency over the past 3 years:

1. Butter Brook (7/17/11): score 73 (+1), SE 0.926, ASE 0.969.
2. Cane Garden (5/18/10): score 80 (+8), SE 0.868, ASE 0.925.
3. Granite Links (7/29/10): score 76 (+5), SE 0.851, ASE 0.913.
4. Red Tail (7/25/09): score 75 (+3), SE 0.851, ASE 0.911.
5. Butter Brook (6/23/10): score 74 (+2), SE 0.860, ASE 0.900.

Up next in the statistics category, I'll try to tackle the other part of the game: short game/putting.