The New Statistic, Part II

Last spring I wrote about a new statistic I devised called shot efficiency.  The idea was to try to analyze ball striking for a round, using a few simple numbers (course rating, yardage, score, and putts.  [See the post for the full formula.]  One of the flaws inherent in the formula is it doesn't fully account for how challenging a course is to play -- something that is fundamentally accounted for in the "other" part of the USGA course rating system, the slope.

The USGA suggests that the best way to determine how difficult it is to score on a given course or set of tees is to use the bogey rating.  Here's how they explain it:

This rating is the evaluation of the playing difficulty of a course for the bogey golfer. It is based on yardage, effective playing length and other obstacles to the extent that affect the scoring ability of the bogey golfer. To figure out this number, other than from looking at this database, the bogey golfer should take the Slope Rating®, divide it by the set factor (5.381 for men, and 4.24 for women) and add that to the Course Rating. The result is a target score for the bogey golfer, and is a truer yardstick of the challenge that lies ahead for the particular set of tees. Example: 96.3- which predicts the bogey golfer's average of his ten best (out of twenty) scores would be approximately 96.3 from this particular set of tees.

So how can we use this to adjust the shot efficiency formula?  The first step I came up with is to determine what I'm calling the course adjustment factor (CAF):

CAF = BOGEY RATING / STD BOGEY RATING

 where:

BOGEY RATING = [SLOPE / 5.381] + COURSE RATING

STD BOGEY RATING = [113 / 5.381] + COURSE RATING

I use 113 as the "standard slope" as that is the USGA definition of an average difficulty course.  From there I simply multiply the calculated shot efficiency by the course adjustment factor to yield the adjusted shot efficiency (ASE).

As an example, let's look at 3 rounds that have the same shot efficiency score to see how the adjustment impacts the rating.  As it turns out, I shot 79 in all 3 of these rounds, making it an even more ideal comparison:

1. 4/29/09 at Butter Brook Golf Club (Black Tees, 6702 yards, 72.6 rating, 133 slope).  I shot 79 with 30 putts, for a SE of 0.737.  The CAF comes out to 1.046, so the ASE is 0.771.  By the conventional metrics I hit 54% of fairways and 50% of GIR.

2. 8/2/09 at Brookmeadow Country Club (Gold Tees, 6585 yards, 71.7/123).  Again shot 79, this time with 31 putts, again the SE being 0.737.  The CAF for those tees is 1.017, so the ASE this time is 0.749.  The standard stats: 29% fairways and 44% greens.

3. 3/6/11 at Nancy Lopez Legacy CC in the Villages (Black Tees, 6906 yards, 73.2/135).  Shot 79 with 29 putts for (again) a SE of 0.737.  Here the CAF is 1.057, for an ASE of 0.779.  In that round I hit 50% of fairways and 33% of GIR.

Obviously these three rounds are all quite similar, but the intuitive difference that comes from the course difficulty is fairly represented by the subtle difference in the adjusted shot efficiency.  

Here's an even better example: in my 2008 round at Bethpage Black, I shot 94 with 36 putts, for a SE of 0.687.  The Black is largely considered one of (if not the) most difficult courses in the country, with a rating (at that time) of 76.6 and a slope of 144.  It's a great course to empirically understand how the slope rating works; even though the course is incredibly long, it plays even longer because of elevated greens, thick punishing rough, and the maniacally placed bunkers -- hence a high slope rating.  So when you apply the course adjustment factor (the highest of any course I've played at 1.123), the ASE jumps all the way up to 0.771.  And that's fair -- there's no way you can say an 84 at Braintree Municipal (rated at 70/123) has an equal shot efficiency to 94 at Bethpage, but that's how the calculation works out.  After applying the course adjustment, the difference in the 2 rounds is almost 10% (0.771 vs. 0.686).

On a final note, here are my top 5 rounds by adjusted shot efficiency over the past 3 years:

1. Butter Brook (7/17/11): score 73 (+1), SE 0.926, ASE 0.969.
2. Cane Garden (5/18/10): score 80 (+8), SE 0.868, ASE 0.925.
3. Granite Links (7/29/10): score 76 (+5), SE 0.851, ASE 0.913.
4. Red Tail (7/25/09): score 75 (+3), SE 0.851, ASE 0.911.
5. Butter Brook (6/23/10): score 74 (+2), SE 0.860, ASE 0.900.

Up next in the statistics category, I'll try to tackle the other part of the game: short game/putting.  

The New Year

A few thoughts on 2011 as I try to kill time before the Super Bowl....

• It wasn't my best golf season.  Although I had one round that was technically the closest I've ever been to even par, it was a little fluky (hinging on an eagle on the 16th hole to get back to +1), and the rest of the year was definitely a step backward.  My handicap index rose from 5.1 to 6.7 over the course of the year, and almost every statistic was worse than the year before:

• I've been to the driving range twice and played 2 rounds of golf (in The Villages) so far in 2012.  One thing I immediately noticed at the range was that my grip had gotten way too strong, which likely was a big contributing factor to my pull-hook tendency last year.  It cliche to say that everything starts with grip, but it's also true -- in my 2 rounds so far this year I virtually eliminated the pull-hook off the tee.  
• I was actually very happy with how I played in Florida, but my bunker play was absolutely horrendous -- I hit 5 greenside bunkers, and every time it took me more than 1 shot to get out, and 4 of those times took 3 shots.  That's a minimum of 9 shots lost over 2 rounds.  In beginning of the year I expect my short game to be weak, but come on.  That has to change.
• Big news for 2012: I will probably be playing a round at Turnberry's Ailsa Course, site of the 2009 (British) Open Championship.  You will most definitely be getting a blog post after that.
• Prediction for today: Patriots 27, Giants 23.

The Asher Invitational | Turning Stone

This past weekend was the inaugural Asher Invitational,* a 54 hole event played out on 3 courses over 2 days at Turning Stone Resort & Casino in Verona, NY.

*Despite the tremendous rhetoric suggesting this was an actual big-time invitational tournament, it was basically a golf weekend organized by my friend Kevin, and the field consisted of 4 guys.  But it was fun to play along.  We even had shirts made up.

There certainly was nothing close to even par played over the course of the weekend -- the weather conditions were prohibitive, with temperatures in the low 40s and "heavy mist" on Saturday, and then downpours for the first 5 holes on Sunday.  But I write this not to tell you the ups and downs of my game.  I write this with one simple message:

IF YOU LIKE GOLF, YOU SHOULD GO TO TURNING STONE.

First, let's run through some of the stats:

There are 3 courses at the resort: Atunyote (which hosted the Turning Stone Resort Championship on the PGA tour from 2007-2010), Kaluhyat, and Shenendoah.  All 3 clock in at over 7000 yards from the tips (Atunyote is the longest at 7,482) and have slopes and ratings in what one might consider the "extreme" range (Kaluhyat is rated the toughest at 75.5/150).  In the course rankings world, Golf Digest ranks Atunyote as the #76 public course in the country, with Kaluhyat not far behind at #84; Golf.com/Golf Magazine actually puts Shenendoah higher than the others, coming in at #59 on their "Best Courses You Can Play" list, with Atunyote next at #65.  (In their in-state rankings, golf.com puts Shenendoah #2 and Atunyote #3 behind Bethpage Black in New York; Kaluhyat ranks 16th.)

So I'm not exactly breaking new ground by saying this, but in the immortal words of Sidra on Seinfeld, "They're real, and they're spectacular."

Shenendoah and Kaluhyat are actually located on the resort grounds and share a clubhouse and practice facility; Atunyote is about 5 minutes down the road.  Both sites feature top-notch staff who were there to service our every need -- and they still had a smile on their faces despite the fact that we were literally the only people playing on Saturday afternoon.  The practice range and putting green at the main site are both immaculate, and probably the best I've used other than TPC Boston (we didn't use the facilities at Atunyote, but I'm sure it was of similar quality). 

The first course we played was Kaluhyat, and it's a beast.  We played all the courses from the blue tees, and it would probably be insane to play this one from the blacks.  The par 5's are probably the toughest set on any course I've ever played; other than the very 1st hole there are no birdie opportunities among them.  You can really tell a lot of thought was put into each hole -- and most of that thought was how to make it challenging.  Despite all that, it's the type of course that you marvel at it's challenge, even while it's kicking your ass.  I loved it.

Atunyote was second on our list.  Everything is long there.  Even from the blue tees there are 5 par-4's over 420 yards, and it closes with a 580 par 5 that is all uphill.  Compared to Kaluhyat the course is wide-open, with a more links-style layout.  Fairways are generally wide, but there are ample bunkers that make the navigation difficult, and the dominating feature of the course is a beautiful running brook that comes into play on many of the holes.

Shenendoah was the last course we played, and I have to say I agree with golf.com -- it's the best of the bunch.  The hole variety is impressive, and the course is definitely fair but challenging, with holes that could be played any number of ways bringing both birdie and double bogey into play.

Ultimately, though, it's the conditions that separate Turning Stone from other sites I've been to.  All 3 courses are in perfect shape, with razor-mown fairways, thick punishing rough, and greens that are smooth, fast, and apparently have the greatest drainage in the world.  We were awed standing on the 1st tee on each of the courses -- and still in awe by the 18th each time.

Let's put it this way: the weather was terrible, probably the worst it can be without the course closing, and we had an awesome time.  I can't wait to go back.